Europe Economics Update Bank stress tests highlight Italy risks The EU bank stress tests suggest that even in a severe economic downturn, the region’s largest lenders would remain solvent. That said, the EBA’s very pessimistic “adverse scenario” might still be too... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Regional slowdown to continue Growth in most of Emerging Europe will continue to slow over the next couple of years, and by more than most expect. The slowdown is set to be sharpest in Turkey, where the recent currency crisis will... 31st October 2018 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Renminbi to break through 7.0 before long The People’s Bank (PBOC) appears to have stepped up intervention recently to support the renminbi as it has approached 7.0 to the US dollar. Many are talking about that line as a psychological... 29th October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Sep.) September’s household borrowing figures provided further signs that consumers are becoming more wary about loading up on unsecured debt. But households remain upbeat about their financial position so... 29th October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) Credit growth in advanced economies is likely to maintain a healthy pace despite quantitative tightening. Meanwhile, the recent spike in Italian government bond yields may increase firms’ borrowing... 26th October 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Equity rout hurts lending, scant relief for private firms Policymakers are worrying about the widespread use in China of shares as collateral for lending – for good reason. But the remedies announced this week are unlikely to make much of a difference as... 26th October 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Regional banks in the spotlight, Abe in China We still think that the solution to the continued fall in regional banks’ capital ratios is a reduction in the number of lenders rather than an increase in the BoJ’s 10-year yield target. Japan’s... 26th October 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Jump in bank lending growth has further to run Data released this week show that bank lending to the private sector grew at its fastest rate since 2014 in September, and there are good reasons to think that the sustained pick-up since the start of... 26th October 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.) Although narrow money growth rebounded in September, the Fed’s quantitative tightening will continue to exert downward pressure over the months ahead. Furthermore, signs are emerging that the Fed’s... 24th October 2018 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Shadow bank concerns come to the fore India’s shadow banking sector has been thrust into the spotlight over the past few weeks, triggered by news that the Infrastructure Leasing & Financial Services (IL&FS) Group is likely to miss several... 24th October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Bank Lending Survey (Q3) The ECB’s Q3 Bank Lending Survey provided further evidence that euro-zone economic growth will continue to hold up fairly well. And, at least for now, there is little sign that the political... 23rd October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook S&P 500, Treasury yields and US dollar all likely to fall We think that the S&P 500, Treasury yields and the US dollar will all fall by the end of next year, as a sharp slowdown in the US economy prompts the Fed to stop hiking rates sooner than investors are... 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Turkey and Argentina not out of the woods The collapses in the Turkish lira and Argentine peso last quarter have caused bank and sovereign debt risks, respectively, to mount in those countries. Meanwhile, financial vulnerabilities are brewing... 17th October 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Sep.) A fresh slowdown in broad credit growth in September adds to the downside risks to growth and is likely to trigger further policy easing over the coming months. 17th October 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Back down to earth in Q3 Japan’s economy was always likely to slow in the third quarter after the surge of output it generated in the second. But the latest data have still been rather disappointing. While investment remains... 15th October 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Banks still struggling, another look at Japan’s debts The government has indicated that it will be more lenient in applying antimonopoly legislation when assessing regional bank mergers. That should pave the way for a further consolidation of... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
