China Rapid Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Dec.) The rebound in broad credit growth remained on track thanks to a step up in government borrowing. But growth in bank loans undershot expectations, dropping to its lowest level in over two decades... 12th January 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Loan defaults unlikely to hinder economic recovery The lagged effects of the weak economy and high interest rates may mean that loan default rates rise in the coming months. But the prospect of interest rate cuts later this year will mean they won’t... 10th January 2024 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Is the worst behind us for business bankruptcies? The surge in Chapter 11 business bankruptcy filings last quarter is not as bad as it looks, as many of them related to the WeWork failure. Excluding those, bankruptcies trended lower at the end of... 10th January 2024 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Investors price in rate cuts, PBOC taps lending scheme In contrast to elsewhere, bond yields in China continued to drop this week as investors increasingly come around to our view that further cuts to policy rates and reserve requirements are imminent... 5th January 2024 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Credit (Nov. 2023) November’s money and credit data suggest that the recent falls in mortgage rates will stimulate new mortgage borrowing, but many existing mortgage holders will still experience higher rates in the... 4th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s economic struggles look set to persist In the past few years, Egypt’s economy has been hit by the successive impacts of the pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and, more recently, currency devaluations. With further currency falls on the cards... 3rd January 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Financial risks easing, but still areas for concern The more supportive global risk environment is helping to ease some financial strains across the EM world, but there are still pockets of vulnerability heading into 2024. Balance of payments positions... 19th December 2023 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Ethiopia default, SA activity, Ghana inflation fall Ethiopia’s sovereign default appears imminent after the government missed a coupon payment on its 2024 Eurobond this week. The prominence of Chinese and private bondholders in Africa continues to... 15th December 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (Dec. 2023) Our Global Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. We think that global growth will undershoot consensus expectations in 2024 as the lagged... 15th December 2023 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Another year of sluggish growth Economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa will strengthen a little in 2024 but is likely to come in well below consensus expectations. OPEC+’s cautious approach to oil policy will keep a lid... 13th December 2023 · 22 mins read
China Rapid Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Nov.) Broad credit growth continued to rise in November thanks to a pick-up in government bond issuance, but it still came in below expectations. We think further policy support is on the way, but this is... 13th December 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Rising arrears not translating into forced sales The detailed mortgage lending data for Q3 show that the high cost of borrowing has continued to price many out of the market and made new BTL investment unattractive. But while arrears are rising... 13th December 2023 · 3 mins read
China Economic Outlook Stronger start, weaker end to 2024 China’s economy has regained some strength recently. We expect this to continue into 2024, on the back of support from fiscal policy and a further pick-up in household spending. But with property... 6th December 2023 · 18 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly S. Africa financial stability risks, Kenya’s housing levy The South African Reserve Bank’s Financial Stability Review out this week shone the spotlight on the risks posed by local banks’ growing holdings of government debt – risks that are only likely to... 1st December 2023 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: currency, sovereign, banking risks intertwine The falls in the Egyptian pound over the past year have increased the size of commercial banks’ net FX assets, but what has flown under the radar is banks’ growing exposure to the government’s FX debt... 29th November 2023 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Credit (Oct. 2023) October’s money and credit data suggest that higher interest rates are continuing to percolate through the economy. As a result, the drag on real consumer spending and business investment will soon... 29th November 2023 · 3 mins read
