Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Record SAIBOR, Egypt FX crunch, Saudi extends oil cut The Saudi Arabian interbank rate hit its highest level in over two decades and, with credit growth in the Kingdom slowing, pressure is likely to mount on the Saudi Central Bank to intervene and inject... 3rd August 2023 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update UAE: a soft 2023, but set to be GCC top performer in 2024 We have collated a range of low-profile activity data for the UAE that point to strong activity in the non-oil economy. But this won’t be enough to offset the impact of oil production cuts. Prospects... 3rd August 2023 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Credit conditions remain tight The Fed’s latest Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey shows that, even though the banking crisis has faded, credit conditions remain unusually tight. Although the net percentage of banks tightening... 31st July 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Credit (Jun. 2023) Higher interest rates continued to gradually feed through to weaker activity in bank lending in June, particularly in the housing market. We suspect this effect will intensify as the Bank of England... 31st July 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Money and lending data point to recession Data released this week show that tighter monetary policy has led to a sharp slowdown in money and lending growth, consistent on past form with falling GDP. Together with the latest business surveys... 26th July 2023 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (Jul. 2023) Our India Chart Pack has been updated to reflect the most recent data and developments as well as our latest analysis. Our View: India’s economy is showing signs of coming off the boil and, with... 19th July 2023 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Credit Conditions Survey (Q2 2023) The narrowing in interest margins reported by mortgage lenders in the Credit Conditions Survey suggests that mortgage rates won’t fall significantly anytime soon. Meanwhile, it became more difficult... 13th July 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Banks rein in supply of credit, weaker demand will be next Rising interest rates have led lenders to rein in the supply of credit to households in Q2, but they haven’t yet curtailed demand. That said, the latest credit conditions survey doesn’t capture the... 13th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Asia Economics Update BoK to change course soon The Bank of Korea today left interest rates unchanged (at 3.5%) and the accompanying statement and press conference were more hawkish than we had anticipated. Accordingly, we are pushing back the... 13th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (July 2023) This new Chart Pack has been designed to replace our Chart Book in response to client feedback to make our insights more accessible, and with more options to incorporate them into your workflow. Use... 12th July 2023 · 1 min read
China Rapid Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jun.) Although stronger than most had expected, bank loan growth still fell to its lowest in five months in June, while broad credit growth dropped to a record low. The continued deceleration adds to the... 11th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update When would the Bundesbank need recapitalising? There are circumstances in which the Bundesbank’s losses over the next few years could require it to be recapitalised by the German government. However, we think these are unlikely to occur and the... 10th July 2023 · 5 mins read
UK Housing Market Update An uneven hit from higher mortgage rates The shift to fixed mortgage rates and the rise in the number of homes owned outright means that while some borrowers face a sharp rise in mortgage payments other homeowners will sit out this interest... 6th July 2023 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi non-oil sector softening blow from oil output cuts Activity in Saudi Arabia’s non-oil sector has continued to hold up well, but that is merely cushioning the blow to the economy from oil output cuts. 5th July 2023 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Consumption and core inflation losing momentum The apparent weakness of consumption growth and slowdown in core inflation in the second quarter leave us a bit more confident in our view that the Fed’s next rate hike will prove to be the last. 30th June 2023 · 10 mins read
China Economics Weekly Households remain cautious, loan demand softens The PBOC’s survey of depositors suggests that the household savings rate declined further in Q2 but may still be well above pre-pandemic levels amid a renewed deterioration in consumer sentiment. A... 30th June 2023 · 4 mins read