China Economics Weekly Deleveraging delusions, market exuberance Policymakers are already billing the deleveraging campaign a success. But we doubt that the recent stabilisation of the debt ratio will prove durable. Meanwhile, Chinese equity prices have jumped... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Export volumes should fall this year The export climate index fell to a three-year low in January and suggests that exports will barely grow at all this year. The monthly trade data have been even more downbeat as they showed export... 26th February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italy: notes from the ground We have just returned from a day of meetings with clients and local contacts in Rome. In this Update, we summarise the key takeaways from the visit. While the banks are heading in the right direction... 25th February 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update The housing downturn isn’t over yet The rise in auction clearing rates in early February is probably just temporary. Housing remains overvalued and other leading indicators point to a continued decline in house prices. We therefore... 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Foreign debt not a major risk in the near term Concerns about China’s external debt have increased recently as interest rates abroad have risen and slowing domestic economic momentum has put firms’ balance sheets under strain. But much of the... 20th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian credit recovery has further to run The recent recovery in Russian private sector credit growth is likely to continue over the coming quarters, supporting our view that, despite the weakness of recent activity data, economic growth will... 20th February 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Wider credit spreads dulling impact of policy easing Rising defaults have widened credit spreads during the past year, preventing borrowing costs for less creditworthy firms from falling in response to looser monetary conditions. Given that subprime... 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jan.) The jump in bank lending last month was mostly seasonal. But after months of declines, broad credit growth did edge up in January, hinting that monetary easing may be starting to gain more traction. 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuela likely to need large debt write-down Views are polarised about size of the losses Venezuelan bondholders might face in an eventual debt restructuring, with some suggesting only modest debt relief is needed and others suggesting a large... 12th February 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Weak housing market weighs on credit growth Data this week confirmed that annual mortgage credit growth slowed to a 35-year low of just 3.1% in December, with the slowdown reflecting subdued home sales and lower house price inflation. More... 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.) The acceleration in broad money growth to a six-year high in December should put to rest any lingering concerns about the impact of the Fed’s balance sheet run-down on the economy. 5th February 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Royal Commission will add to slowing credit growth The final report by the Royal Commission may add to the changes in bank behaviour that are already underway. However, the report did not recommend much that is likely to cause an upheaval for the... 4th February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) In advanced economies, monetary and credit conditions remain supportive. But bond issuance has been declining sharply in recent months, and credit growth in China is still slowing. 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA’s optimism faces reality check The RBA will probably continue to signal that the next move in rates is up at Tuesday’s meeting. But with mounting signs that the housing downturn is spreading to other parts of the economy and price... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update S Africa: Eskom debt risks overstated, but tough choices ahead Fears that troubles at South Africa’s public power firm will lead to another downgrade of the state’s credit rating seem overdone. Over the long term, however, the utility is not sustainable. Securing... 31st January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Modern Monetary Theory creates more problems than it solves A new strand of economics called “Modern Monetary Theory” (MMT) is seen by its advocates as a solution to the flawed economic thinking that contributed to the financial crisis. The ideas behind it... 31st January 2019 · 1 min read
