UK Economics Update Shying away from borrowing to spend on big items The subdued rise in borrowing in March may be because Brexit has sapped households’ desire to borrow to buy big items. At the aggregate level, low interest rates mean that debt is still manageable. 1st May 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Interest rates set to fall The economic outlook has deteriorated in both Australia and New Zealand. In Australia, the downturn in the housing market and falling business confidence should mean that GDP growth will continue to... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Election crosses halfway stage India’s mammoth general election that began earlier this month is now past the halfway stage. Votes have been cast in 302 out of the country’s 543 constituencies, with four days earmarked for further... 24th April 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Spending boost from sales tax hike to remain muted Private consumption surged ahead of the last two sales tax hikes as households brought forward spending but collapsed as soon as the tax had been raised. The data thus far suggest that consumers have... 22nd April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q1) There was an unexpected loosening in credit conditions at the start of the year. But with no let-up in economic uncertainty and continued gloom about the outlook for housing, we expected this will be... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
India Economic Outlook Slower growth after the election Growth in India is likely to slow as policy tightens after the general election. Even so, it should still be the best performing major emerging economy in the coming years. 15th April 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Mar.) Broad credit growth rose in March, but is still consistent with further economic weakness in the near term. We think that the People’s Bank will loosen policy further over coming months. 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
China Economic Outlook Policy restraint to limit scale of rebound We expect stimulus to shore up growth in the next few months. But with the scale of policy support smaller than in previous downturns, the sharp economic rebound that some are expecting is unlikely. 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response ECB Bank Lending Survey (Q1 2019) The latest ECB Bank Lending Survey suggests that economic growth will remain weak. This will probably encourage the ECB to make the terms of its new TLTROs – which are likely to be confirmed in June –... 9th April 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swedbank under scrutiny, WOW Air collapse The scandal at Swedbank raise questions about transparency, corruption, and the relationship between banks and regulators in Sweden, while the collapse of WOW Air means that the chances of further... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.) The pick-up in broad money growth to a six-year high in February is not necessarily a positive for the economy because it is a lagging indicator. But it does at least suggest the Fed’s balance sheet... 27th March 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Will the RBA have to cut interest rates? We believe that GDP growth in Australia will fall well below potential this year as the housing downturn bites. That means that unemployment will soon start to rise again and underlying inflation will... 27th March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Slowing bank lending to weigh on Italy’s economy Higher government bond yields in Italy have not fed through to increased interest rates on bank loans, and this seems unlikely to happen to any significant degree this year. Nevertheless, Italian... 21st March 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Feb.) The sharp drop in lending last month reversed much of the jump in January. With the trajectory of credit growth still pointing to further economic weakness, we think the People’s Bank will need to... 11th March 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Bank mergers to lift profits, trade deal back on agenda Upcoming regulatory changes reported this week should help support an increase in bank profits and thereby neutralise one of the key arguments for why the Bank of Japan should reverse its ultra-loose... 8th March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Early hard data bode ill for Q1 World GDP growth was little changed at 3.1% annualised in Q4 as the euro-zone posted another modest expansion, US growth slowed from a strong pace and a pick-up in Japanese GDP offset part of Q3’s... 6th March 2019 · 1 min read
