Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Capital requirement concerns are overblown Commercial banks in New Zealand have kicked up a fuss over a proposal by the Reserve Bank to increase the level of capital the banks are required to hold. By contrast, we believe the new rules won’t... 25th July 2019 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly US rates and Gulf credit, Oman tightens fiscal policy Central banks in the Gulf will follow the US Federal Reserve in cutting interest rates next week, but past experience suggests that this is unlikely to provide a significant boost to the economy... 25th July 2019 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Update Credit boom bypassing the domestic economy Credit is growing at its strongest rate since the early 1990s. Given that investment growth has started to slow, the spike in private debt seems odd at first glance but much of it appears to have been... 25th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Risks concentrated in the usual suspects Economic and financial vulnerabilities remain low across much of the emerging world. But banking sector vulnerabilities are high in Turkey and China. And we are now explicitly forecasting a sovereign... 24th July 2019 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Low credit spreads reflect excessive optimism We think that Japan’s headline CPI inflation dropped to 0.6% y/y in June (00.30 BST) Canada’s retail sales are likely to have edged up in May (13.30 BST) University of Michigan US consumer confidence... 18th July 2019 · 5 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q2) Lenders reported a drop in mortgage availability in Q2. And while that decline is expected to reverse in Q3, we doubt that will translate into a rebound in mortgage lending. Meanwhile, credit... 18th July 2019 · 3 mins read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jun.) A shift toward fiscal easing helped to push up credit growth last month but the pace of lending remained relatively weak and still looks consistent with a further slowdown in economic growth. 12th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Regional bank tie-up a step in the right direction Regional banks’ health has deteriorated as the population is shrinking and the number of firms is falling. As such, the cooperation between two of the largest regional banks that was announced this... 12th July 2019 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly (Another) fraud scandal at PNB, vehicle sales slump The latest fraud scandal engulfing Punjab National Bank – one of India’s largest state-owned banks – is a stark reminder that recent measures to revive the banking sector need to be supplemented with... 12th July 2019 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update E-Z government bond yields likely to be low for longer Christine Lagarde’s nomination as ECB President makes us even more optimistic about the near-term outlook for government bonds in the euro-zone and reinforces our view that corporate bonds there will... 5th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Mixed signals to keep Bank on hold The Bank of Canada is likely to upgrade its GDP growth forecasts in its new Monetary Policy Report, but we think that its expectations will prove too optimistic. While Governor Stephen Poloz may... 3rd July 2019 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly The bad loan cycle is turning The RBI’s confirmation this week that the NPL ratio has dropped over the past year suggests that the government’s efforts to tidy up the banking sector are gradually having an impact. We are... 28th June 2019 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update Cash will remain king for a long time yet Cashless transactions in India have risen sharply over the past few years, and recent developments should further support the expansion of digital payments. But while there is a clear willingness from... 19th June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Turkey’s banks: why the next crisis will be worse Turkey’s banks came through last year’s currency crisis without suffering the severe problems that many had feared. But credit growth will probably stay weak, holding back the economic recovery... 13th June 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (May) Credit growth remained broadly stable in May. Policy easing has not yet been effective in generating a sustained pick-up in credit growth and is one of the reasons why we don’t expect a strong... 12th June 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Why Italy cannot escape from its debt trap There is little that Italy’s government can do to prevent its debt ratio from rising. For a number of reasons, not least of which is its membership of the euro-zone, the three paths to debt reduction... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
