Europe Data Response ECB Bank Lending Survey (Q3 2019) The latest ECB Bank Lending Survey shows that firms’ demand for credit is softening, adding to evidencethat the euro-zone economy will remain sluggish and in need of further policy support. 22nd October 2019 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Credit growth likely to rebound soon The continued slowdown in credit growth in September challenges our view that the economy is set to recover after a weak first half of the year. But with lending rates now beginning to drop in earnest... 18th October 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q3) A weaker economic outlook and stronger risk aversion among lenders led banks to tighten credit availability in Q3. What’s more, lending to commercial property was also reined in. 17th October 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q3) A weaker economic outlook and stronger risk aversion among lenders led banks to tighten credit availability in Q3. What’s more, lending to commercial property was also reined in. 17th October 2019 · 3 mins read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Sep.) Credit growth failed to pick up in September despite recent policy easing. And while we expect policymakers to take more aggressive action before long, the impact of any easing on credit growth and... 15th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Revisiting the vulnerabilities in Turkey’s banking sector The growing threat of sanctions on Turkey in relation to its recent incursion into Syria have already put significant downward pressure on Turkish financial assets and fragilities in the banking... 14th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Could banks start charging savers if the BoJ cut rates? Recent suggestions that the Bank of Japan will cut its policy rate have fuelled speculation that Japanese banks might be forced to start passing on negative interest rates to savers. But given that... 14th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: Lower rates won’t lead to a lending revival The monetary transmission mechanism in Brazil seems to have weakened recently, which is likely to prevent the sharp fall in market interest rates seen since 2017 from feeding through to a significant... 10th October 2019 · 4 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Headwinds strengthening We still think that the impact of October’s sales tax hike on consumption will be smaller than after previous tax hikes. But the outlook for external demand remains poor and firms have become less... 9th October 2019 · 22 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Cheap long-term loans wouldn’t replace QE Once interest rates approach their lower bound, the RBA could provide long-term loans to banks and link their interest rate to the amount of new lending those banks undertake. However, if the Bank... 7th October 2019 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Outlook Tighter credit conditions rule out sales recovery Mortgage interest rates recently dropped to three-year lows, but mortgage applications for home purchase are more-or-less unchanged from where they were at the start of the year. A slowing economy... 4th October 2019 · 16 mins read
India Economics Weekly Banking sector warnings, fiscal deficit target doubts India’s authorities have recently received plaudits for their efforts to clean up the banking sector. But news this week of a fraud scandal at the Punjab & Maharashtra Co-operative Bank (PMC Bank) is... 4th October 2019 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily US corporate credit spreads likely to start widening again soon UK services PMI likely to have dropped back in September (09.30 BST) We think that euro-zone retail sales fell again in August (10.00 BST) US ISM non-manufacturing index probably edged down only... 2nd October 2019 · 6 mins read
India Chart Pack Reigniting reforms The latest activity data for India have been disappointing but, despite the economy’s recent soft patch, developments over the past month should boost optimism over long-run prospects. In late August... 19th September 2019 · 9 mins read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Aug.) Monetary easing has so far failed to generate much of a pick-up in credit growth, which remained unchanged last month. This should push policymakers to take further action. 11th September 2019 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update Hong Kong’s banks can weather the storm Early-warning indicators suggest that Hong Kong’s banking system is primed for a crisis. And banks face multiple shocks from an economic recession, a housing market correction and capital outflows... 10th September 2019 · 5 mins read
