India Chart Pack Tentative signs of recovery 2019 was truly an annus horribilis for India’s economy but there are green shoots of a recovery in the data from the very end of the year. Industrial production growth jumped in November. Meanwhile... 20th January 2020 · 9 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly FSA’s sweeping reforms, BoJ cuts regional assessment Proposals to allow regional banks to diversify into non-banking business could help to reduce their overreliance on dwindling interest income. But in a sector famed for its conservatism, business... 17th January 2020 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Phase One, Wall Street and the renminbi The Phase One trade deal signed this week includes commitments by China to refrain from competitive devaluations and widen market access for US non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs). We doubt the... 17th January 2020 · 5 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q4) Mortgage availability rose in Q4, as competition between lenders picked up. But with banks competing on price, rather than lowering their credit standards, we think the housing market fundamentals... 16th January 2020 · 3 mins read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Dec.) Growth in outstanding broad credit was unchanged last month as a slowdown in bank lending and direct financing was offset by an easing contraction in shadow credit. With credit growth less responsive... 16th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook RBA’s work not done yet Australia’s house prices may rise by 8% this year but consumers are still reeling under high debt loads. With growth set to fall short of potential, we still expect unemployment to rise further which... 16th January 2020 · 22 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q4) Mortgage availability rose in Q4, as competition between lenders picked up. But with banks competing on price, rather than lowering their credit standards, we think the housing market fundamentals... 16th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Mortgage defaults may keep rising Banks’ housing lending standards remain tight. But this hasn’t prevented housing arrears from climbing to fresh highs as household balance sheets are stretched. And given that we expect the... 15th January 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economic Outlook The road to recovery After a year to forget in 2019, a combination of policy loosening and more effective measures to deal with the malaise in the shadow banking sector will push economic growth in India back up to a... 9th January 2020 · 19 mins read
China Data Response FX Reserves (Dec.) The official foreign exchange reserves figures suggest that the PBOC continued to refrain from direct FX intervention last month on the back of easing trade tensions. With outflows moderating – and... 7th January 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Defaults hurt credit allocation, banks kept afloat China is ending the year with financial strains once again dominating the headline. The sharp rise in defaults by private firms is cementing creditors’ preference for lending to state firms and so... 20th December 2019 · 5 mins read
China Chart Pack US demanding implausibly large import ramp up China’s apparent reluctance to commit to the extra $200bn of US imports relative to 2017 levels that the US is requesting over the next two years as part of the Phase One deal is understandable... 18th December 2019 · 11 mins read
India Chart Pack Populist shift a risk for long-run outlook The citizen amendment bill – which aims to fast-track citizenship for non-Muslims from neighbouring Muslim-majority countries – has dominated the news over the past couple of weeks. This isn’t... 18th December 2019 · 9 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack Equities likely to rise more slowly in 2020 than 2019 Despite recent optimism about trade and Brexit, we doubt that equities in developed markets (DMs) will fare as well next year as they have in 2019. That said, those in the UK will be an exception in... 17th December 2019 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly Bankruptcy code improved, NBFC relief The amendments to the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code and easing of lending rules for shadow banks that were approved in the Rajya Sabha (upper house of parliament) this week should provide limited... 13th December 2019 · 4 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Tax hike less damaging than previous ones The available data on retail sales, household spending as well as the Bank of Japan’s consumption activity index show that consumer spending fell broadly as much in October as in April 2014, when the... 11th December 2019 · 10 mins read
