BoE Watch One last hike We think that a 25 basis point (bps) rise in interest rates, from 5.25% to 5.50%, at the Bank of England’s policy meeting on Thursday 21st September will be the last hike in this cycle and that sticky... 14th September 2023 · 8 mins read
China Economics Update PBOC rate cuts: Go big or go home The quantitative tools that the PBOC relied on to pump up credit growth during previous downturns have become ineffective due to weak demand. That leaves interest rates as the main avenue for monetary... 11th September 2023 · 6 mins read
China Rapid Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Aug.) China’s bank loan growth stabilised in August after declining for three consecutive months, and broad credit growth edged up from July’s record low. We think that policy easing could drive a modest... 11th September 2023 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor M1 narrow money continues to contract at a double-digit annual pace, as higher interest rates temper demand for low-return deposits. Broader money growth is not faring quite as badly, since higher... 6th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Repayment of €2.2trn TLTROs to have little impact The repayment of ECB TLTROs by banks has gone smoothly so far and we expect the rest of the TLTROs to be repaid by the end of 2024 without significantly affecting financial conditions or interest... 31st August 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Credit (Jul. 2023) The drag on bank lending from higher interest rates grew further in July, particularly in the housing market. We think this effect will intensify as the Bank of England presses ahead with another 25... 30th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Money and credit data show effects of tighter policy The effects of tighter monetary policy are very clear in the latest money and credit data, reinforcing our view that the euro-zone economy will perform worse than most analysts expect in the coming... 29th August 2023 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Shadow banks are getting squeezed Zhongzhi won’t be the last shadow bank to run into trouble. Others are also suffering from mounting losses on their assets and a funding squeeze as cautious investors shift money into deposits and... 18th August 2023 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update Policy paralysis has dented near-term outlook China’s economy has stalled recently and headwinds are still intensifying on multiple fronts. The lack of a stronger stimulus response partly reflects a greater tolerance for economic weakness. But it... 17th August 2023 · 4 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (Aug. 2023) Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. India’s economy is showing signs of coming off the boil, and core inflation is moderating. However... 17th August 2023 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Current EM turmoil not a sign of widespread risks The crises unfolding in Argentina, Russia, as well as in China’s property sector, this week may rumble on for some time. And in the case of China’s property downturn, there are likely to be spillovers... 15th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (Aug. 2023) While economic activity was generally more resilient than feared in the first half of 2023, we expect global growth to disappoint in the coming quarters. We doubt that another bout of policy stimulus... 14th August 2023 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How many global risks lie in China's Country Garden The immediate global economic and market fallout from troubles at Chinese property developer Country Garden seems likely to be limited. Foreign exposure to China’s property sector has fallen sharply... 14th August 2023 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jul.) China’s bank loan growth fell to its lowest in seven months in July, while broad credit growth dropped to a record low. We expect further policy rate cuts and a spike in government bond issuance in... 11th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Financial conditions still flagging recession risk Even though the financial strains that emerged after SVB’s collapse have dissipated, interest rate hikes have left overall financial conditions in major advanced economies close to their tightest... 9th August 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily A brighter future for banks may require one for the economy The share prices of US banks have recovered some ground since a low point in May, as concerns about further failures in the industry have abated; Treasury yields have rebounded; and the economy has... 8th August 2023 · 4 mins read