Global Economics Focus

Have we reached the end of the housing correction?

Housing markets in developed economies have perplexed forecasters since 2019. The boom in prices in 2020-22 was not anticipated, and the fall in prices since has been smaller than expected. In this...

14th February 2024 · 17 mins read

UK Housing Market Update

Later rate cuts are the biggest risk to the recovery

Current fixed mortgage rates of around 4.6% are based on investors’ forecast that Bank Rate will be cut from 5.25% to 4.50% by the end of the year. We think that rates will be reduced a bit faster...

13th February 2024 · 3 mins read

India Economics Weekly

Paytm fallout, RBI unmoved, new Inflation Dashboard

The RBI left rates on hold as expected this week, but much of the discussion at the press conference was on its clamp down on the activities of Paytm Payments Bank. We don’t think this is a major...

9th February 2024 · 5 mins read

China Rapid Response

Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jan)

There was the usual seasonal surge in net credit in China in January that took new bank lending to a record high. The underlying story is less positive, with loan demand little changed and broader...

9th February 2024 · 2 mins read

US Economics Update

Credit conditions normalising

The Fed’s latest Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey suggests that banks have put last year’s SVB regional bank crisis firmly behind them and, with long-term interest rates markedly lower than the...

5th February 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Markets Outlook

Markets are not braced for how far inflation will fall

Our forecast that CPI inflation will fall below 1.0% later this year suggests that Bank Rate will be cut from 5.25% now to 3.00% rather than the low of 3.50-3.75% priced into the market, 10-year gilt...

30th January 2024 · 10 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Money & Credit (Dec. 2023)

December’s money and credit figures suggest the transition from interest rates being a drag on activity to being a boost is beginning. This lends some support to our view that the economic recovery...

30th January 2024 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Regulatory changes won’t affect house price outlook

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand launched a consultation on changes to its macroprudential framework last week. In our view, the proposed tweaks are unlikely to have a meaningful impact on the housing...

30th January 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Money supply bottoming out but lending to stay weak

Data released this morning suggest that the collapse in the euro-zone’s money supply might be over. But we expect money and lending growth to remain fairly weak.

26th January 2024 · 2 mins read

China Economics Update

PBOC still only easing with caution

The People’s Bank’s policy announcements today will provide only a small boost for China’s economy. Meaningful improvements in household or corporate borrowing would require substantial rate cuts or a...

24th January 2024 · 4 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Case for tighter macroprudential measures is weak

While Australian households are as indebted as ever and mortgage payments have hit fresh record-highs, lending standards continue to be sound, loan defaults remain subdued and banks are well...

23rd January 2024 · 4 mins read

Global Inflation Watch

Will the last mile be the hardest?

The easiest wins in the disinflation battle are behind us now that base effects from the previous surge in energy prices have run their course. Indeed, we expect energy effects to lift inflation in...

18th January 2024 · 16 mins read

UK Economics Update

Drag on economic growth from credit starting to fade

The Bank of England’s Q4 Credit Conditions Survey suggests the worst of the drag on economic growth from higher interest rates is fading. That suggests an economic recovery will begin later this year.

18th January 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Housing Market Update

Credit Conditions Survey (Q4 2023)

The latest Credit Conditions Survey showed a rise in the availability of mortgage credit in Q4 as financial market interest rates fell, but demand for mortgages slipped as mortgage rates took time to...

18th January 2024 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Revisiting Dubai’s GRE debts

We have long highlighted the risk in Dubai’s corporate sector and the large debts that government-related entities (GREs) have accrued. This Update provides our latest estimates of these debts. The...

16th January 2024 · 6 mins read