Europe Economics Update Money and lending growth will remain subdued February’s money and credit data suggest that the effect of tighter monetary policy has eased slightly. But the data are still very weak and we think that rate cuts later in the year will lead to only... 28th March 2024 · 3 mins read
China Economic Outlook Prop from stimulus to be short-lived China’s economy has fared better recently and policy support is likely to remain a near-term prop to growth. But we remain less sanguine about the medium-term outlook. 27th March 2024 · 15 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Mar. 2024) The past month has seen Egypt’s economic crisis turn around with the devaluation of the pound, aggressive interest rate hike, and unlocking of a new IMF deal. There have been false dawns before, but... 27th March 2024 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (Mar. 2024) Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. India retained its title as the world’s fastest-growing major economy last year and the latest data... 26th March 2024 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Election countdown, our new EM risk indicators We've entered the final few weeks before India's general election kicks off. All the signs point to another win for Prime Minister Modi's BJP but what really matters for the economy is whether the... 22nd March 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus EM financial risk – An early warning system The past few years have sharpened investors’ focus on assessing risks and vulnerabilities across the EM world. We have developed a comprehensive suite of indicators to identify early signs of a... 20th March 2024 · 17 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria Eurobond, SA banks and SDR increase The Nigerian naira’s latest devaluation has taken it closer to fair value and, with investor sentiment towards Nigeria improving, the government is lining up a fresh Eurobond sale. That may help to... 15th March 2024 · 7 mins read
Event EM Drop-In: Where to spot financial risk in emerging markets 1711551600 Recent years have sharpened investor focus on identifying risks and vulnerabilities across the EM world as the pandemic, the Ukraine war and the surge in US rates have exposed
UK Housing Market Update Rental market continues to contract The more granular detail of mortgage lending in Q4 published by the Bank of England this morning added to the evidence that the Buy-to-Let (BTL) sector is contracting. Meanwhile arrears increased, but... 12th March 2024 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly New productive buzzwords China’s leadership is increasingly talking about “New Productive Forces” as the key to the country’s future economic success – harnessing them was the first Major Task for 2024 in the government Work... 8th March 2024 · 7 mins read
China Economics Focus China’s economic roadmap for 2024 The policy agenda laid out at the National People’s Congress today is a reasonably pro-growth one. The new fiscal plans are supportive, monetary policy continues to have an easing bias, and the... 5th March 2024 · 15 mins read
US Economics Update Rebound in money supply not an inflation threat Money growth remains weak but is rebounding steadily, with our broader M3 measure recovering to its strongest since mid-2022. But there is no reason to expect this to drive a rebound in inflation. 4th March 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Credit (Jan. 2024) January’s money and credit figures suggest the drag on consumer spending and the housing market from higher interest rates is easing, which suggests an economic recovery, at least in some sectors, has... 29th February 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update The Times: Why 99 per cent mortgages will make the housing crisis worse A version of this report was originally published as an opinion piece in The Times on 28th February 2024. 28th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Money and lending growth will remain subdued January’s money and credit data are consistent with our view that the improvement in the data towards the end of last year was not the beginning of strong recovery. 27th February 2024 · 2 mins read
