Capital Daily We think the US dollar will strengthen again before long We don’t expect the recent weakness in the US dollar to persist. On the contrary, we think that it will strengthen against most major currencies as economic growth in the US outpaces that in the rest... 12th May 2021 · 6 mins read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Apr.) Both bank lending and broad credit dropped off more sharply than most expected in April. Apart from during last year’s lockdown, loan growth hasn’t been this slow in nearly two decades. 12th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Assessing the fallout from Colombia’s fiscal drama Recent protests have pushed Colombia’s government away from the fiscal reforms that are needed to reduce the public debt ratio in the coming years. It’s therefore likely that the sovereign will lose... 10th May 2021 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Retail Sales (Mar./Q1 2021) The drop in real retail sales in Q1 suggests that the recovery in consumption slowed last quarter. And with the vaccination drive still slow, we think that consumption will only return to pre-virus... 10th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect gains in EM Asia stock markets to remain small We don’t think stock markets in emerging Asia will come roaring back to life any time soon, and forecast relatively small increases in equity indices there over the next few years. 7th May 2021 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly (Pe)Ace out, budget balancing act in SA, vaccine patents The suspension of Ace Magashule, the Secretary General of South Africa’s ruling ANC party is likely to go some way in strengthening the hand of President Cyril Ramaphosa in an intra-party fight. But... 7th May 2021 · 5 mins read
China Data Response China Trade (Apr.) Headline trade growth picked up last month thanks to favourable base effects. But in seasonally-adjusted terms, exports continued to level off and the rebound in imports stalled. This partly reflects... 7th May 2021 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Tourism recovering, Phase One deal remains a dud Domestic tourists made a record number of trips over the recent Labour Day holiday. But in a sign that consumers are still holding back, daily tourism spending was still a fifth below pre-pandemic... 7th May 2021 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack We think that rotation may leave DM REITs behind Although we forecast that that the “rotation” in equity markets generally has further to run, as COVID-19 is contained and economies re-open, we project that developed market (DM) Real Estate... 6th May 2021 · 13 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Vaccination pace finally picks up After contracting again in the first quarter of this year, prospects for the second quarter have improved because the pace of vaccination has accelerated. At its recent pace, the euro-zone is on track... 6th May 2021 · 12 mins read
Canada Economics Update Higher commodities prices another tailwind to growth The further strong rises in commodity prices present upside risks to our GDP forecasts, although the boost to growth is likely to be smaller than during previous periods of strong commodity price... 6th May 2021 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Tunisia and the IMF, April’s PMIs, Hajj restrictions Tunisia’s government has jump started talks with the IMF over a fresh financing package but it may prove difficult to secure. If the talks fall apart, Tunisia would be pushed towards a messy balance... 6th May 2021 · 7 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response RICS Construction Market Survey (Q1) The RICS Construction Survey points to a rise in output at the start of this year, with the highest workload reading since Q1 2016. Looking ahead, respondents are more optimistic about the outlook but... 6th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Australia - Pandemic unlikely to result in long-term scarring The closure of the border will reduce Australia’s potential output by around 2.5%. But this will be partly offset by higher productivity growth due to increased usage of technology and more employees... 6th May 2021 · 17 mins read
UK Economics A wave of insolvencies is coming, but not a tsunami There will be a surge in business insolvencies once the government’s moratoriums expire at the end of June and September. But a strong economic recovery should ensure that fewer businesses go bust... 5th May 2021 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Apr.) Despite a small fall in mortgage interest rates, home purchase and refinance demand edged back in April. The reopening of the economy and easing credit conditions will provide some support for housing... 5th May 2021 · 2 mins read
