Capital Daily US corporate bonds versus equities The relative valuation of stock and corporate bond markets continues to make us doubt that equities in general are in a bubble. It remains very different to the situation before collapses in the US... 19th May 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Asia now the epicentre The severe waves of COVID-19 that afflicted Emerging Europe and Latin America earlier in the year are now subsiding and the near-term economic outlook there has brightened. But several Asian economies... 19th May 2021 · 11 mins read
Asset Allocation Update We doubt the 10Y UST/Bund spread will keep shrinking Although the spread between 10-year sovereign bond yields in the US and Germany has narrowed so far during the second quarter of this year, we doubt this will continue for much longer. 19th May 2021 · 6 mins read
RBNZ Watch Housing mandate won’t change the Bank’s outlook While the Bank will acknowledge the new house price requirements in its remit it is unlikely to respond to them with immediate policy changes. On that basis we expect the RBNZ to keep policy settings... 19th May 2021 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Focus ECB climate rhetoric to run ahead of action The ECB will make a big splash about climate change when it concludes its monetary strategy review this autumn. In practice, it is likely to make progress in addressing climate-related risks in the... 18th May 2021 · 14 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Near-term inflation pressures mount Near-term inflationary pressures appear to be building. Some of this reflects factors that are likely to be only temporary, such as the “reopening inflation” associated with the easing of virus... 17th May 2021 · 15 mins read
Capital Daily Assessing the market implications of slower growth in China We think slowing economic growth in China – highlighted again by today’s economic data – has several key implications for the country’s financial markets. 17th May 2021 · 6 mins read
China Data Response China Activity & Spending (Apr.) Year-on-year growth on all indicators dropped back last month. This partly reflects a less flattering base for comparison. But current momentum was also a bit softer, especially for retail sales. We... 17th May 2021 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Currency markets weighing the prospects for recovery The unexpected jump in US inflation data pushed the greenback higher against most currencies this week and may a harbinger of things to come – we continue to expect the dollar to appreciate this year... 14th May 2021 · 7 mins read
Commodities Weekly The price rally may be starting to run out of steam Aside from coal and natural gas, the prices of most commodities fell this week in tandem with the declines in global equity markets. Investors are concerned about rising inflation, particularly in the... 14th May 2021 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly PBOC is right to be relaxed about inflation Producer prices are rising rapidly as the extraordinary surge in global demand for consumer durables during the pandemic has led to bottlenecks in supply. But the People’s Bank is right to not be too... 14th May 2021 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Taking stock of risky asset valuations In this Update, we take a look at the valuations of a broad range of the “risky” assets that we cover on our Asset Allocation service. We think that six key points stand out. 14th May 2021 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Housing boom to test the Riksbank’s dovish resolve The Riksbank will look through the recent pick-up in consumer price inflation in Sweden, which rose above the Bank’s 2% target in April for the first time since May 2019. After all, the energy-driven... 13th May 2021 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Euro-zone corporate credit spreads may fall a little further While we don’t think there is much scope for corporate credit spreads generally to narrow much further from here, in our view spreads in the euro-zone could fall a bit more than those in the US or the... 13th May 2021 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly UAE property sector, Tunisia’s COVID crisis, remittances Recent figures suggest that the downturn in the UAE’s real estate sector has bottomed out but we still hold concerns that increasing supply will exacerbate overcapacity and put further strain on banks... 13th May 2021 · 7 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Worsening affordability hits home buying sentiment Mortgage rates have edged down since the end of March, but that didn’t prevent a fall in the share of households who see now as a good time to buy a home to a record low in April. House price growth... 12th May 2021 · 9 mins read
