US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.) Growth in the key monetary aggregates and bank lending has turned up over recent months, driven in part by the Fed’s continued asset purchases. 26th May 2021 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller/FHFA & New Home Sales (Mar./Apr.) House price growth accelerated in March, reaching a record high of 13.9% y/y on the FHFA measure. But there are signs that the boom in prices is now weighing on housing demand and activity. New home... 25th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Signs that price rallies are beginning to falter The prices of most commodities dropped back again this week as global equity markets struggled to make ground and virus cases in parts of Asia continued to rise. Meanwhile, reports emerged that good... 21st May 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Chile’s constitution shock, Colombia’s downgrade The surprise results of the vote last weekend to elect members to Chile’s Constitutional Convention points to a much greater likelihood of rises in public spending on welfare and larger budget... 21st May 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary’s policy shift, Turkey’s tight fiscal stance Guidance from Hungary's central bank this week suggests that it is taking the fight against inflation much more seriously and we now think that a monetary tightening cycle will start over the coming... 21st May 2021 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank monitoring housing for signs of “exuberance” The latest Financial System Review suggests that the Bank of Canada’s concerns about high house price inflation are a key risk to our view that it will wait until early 2023 before raising interest... 21st May 2021 · 4 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Apr.) Global steel production rose again in April as lower output in India, in particular, was offset by sizeable jumps in production in China, Russia and Brazil. For now, virus-containment measures remain... 21st May 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics BoE to unwind QE before it raises interest rates The rapid rebound in economic activity revealed by this week’s data releases has started to prompt some questions about when and how the Bank of England will tighten monetary policy. Our answers are... 21st May 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Israel and the risks to our macro forecasts The announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas removes one of the key uncertainties about the outlook for Israel’s economy and we maintain our forecast for a rapid recovery in GDP to take... 21st May 2021 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Vaccine surge, commodity price curbs After a slow start, China’s COVID-19 vaccine rollout is now one of the world’s fastest and is currently responsible for over half of daily inoculations globally. At this pace, China could catch up... 21st May 2021 · 4 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack We doubt inflation will send the equity rally into reverse While inflation fears have taken some steam out of the US stock market rally recently, we still think that equities in the US, and elsewhere, will make further gains over the next couple of years. 20th May 2021 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily We expect recent strength in the South African rand to reverse Despite its recent appreciation against the US dollar, we expect the South African rand – like most emerging market (EM) currencies – to end this year weaker against the greenback. 20th May 2021 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Iran deal, Gulf re-opening, Tunisia debt restructuring If reports suggesting that the Iran nuclear deal will be revived (perhaps as soon as next week) prove right, the lifting of sanctions would probably weigh on oil prices as Iran ramps up production... 20th May 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Competition for industrial assets bids down yields With the faster pace of vaccination paving the way for a rebound in economic activity, the prospects for occupier markets have improved. However, structural changes mean that the recovery in the... 20th May 2021 · 9 mins read
India Chart Pack Over the worst? New virus cases in India remain extremely high, but some solace can be taken from the fact that they have dropped rapidly over the past couple of weeks back to their level in mid-April. The share of... 20th May 2021 · 9 mins read
China Economics Update PBOC credit objectives being met without LPR hikes Commercial banks left the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) unchanged for the 13 th consecutive month today. Official goals for reining in credit have already been achieved by other means. As such, we do not... 20th May 2021 · 2 mins read
