Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Fiscal policy to remain loose for longer Australian Treasurer Josh Frydenberg noted in October that the Government would not pursue budget repair until the unemployment rated was comfortably below 6%. However, the unemployment rate fell much... 31st May 2021 · 10 mins read
Asia Economics Focus Rate hikes coming in Korea as recovery gathers momentum With the economy rebounding strongly from the crisis, the Bank of Korea (BoK) is starting to shift its attention away from supporting growth and towards containing financial risks. We expect the BoK... 31st May 2021 · 10 mins read
China Data Response China Official PMIs (May) The latest surveys suggest that stronger construction activity nudged up overall growth this month and that supply shortages are pushing up prices even as final demand for manufactured goods appears... 31st May 2021 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Rising US core inflation may push up Treasury yields before long The rise in US core inflation in May adds to evidence that price pressures are building across the economy, which supports our view that Treasury yields will resume their rise before long. 28th May 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Lira touches new low, CEE bond yield divergence It's been a rocky week for the Turkish lira amid more changes at the central bank and political upheaval regarding a possible link between politicians and organised crime. This, coming alongside high... 28th May 2021 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Troubles in construction unlikely to be repeated elsewhere Output in the construction sector was already 2.3% above its pre-crisis level in March and there is evidence that supply constraints are starting to bite. However, there is still plenty of spare... 28th May 2021 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly PBOC’s turn to target currency manipulators After regulators last week pledged to root speculators out from the domestic commodity market, this week it was the turn of the People’s Bank to tackle manipulation in the currency market, which it... 28th May 2021 · 6 mins read
China Activity Monitor Surprising on the upside Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that output rose further above its pre-virus trend last month thanks to the recent rebound in services and continued strength in industry and construction. We... 28th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We expect credit spreads to remain low, with some exceptions We think sovereign and corporate credit spreads will generally remain lows in the next two years. The main exceptions are sovereign credit spreads in Latin America, Emerging Europe and Africa, which... 27th May 2021 · 5 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack We think EM equities will rise, not shine We forecast that emerging market (EM) equities will make further gains between now and end-2022 as the global economy recovers further. However, they have lost a bit of ground to developed market (DM)... 27th May 2021 · 8 mins read
FX Markets Focus A primer on our new FX Markets service The purpose of this Focus is to introduce our new FX Markets service, which we launched in May 2021. It is split into three sections. The first provides an overview of the new service. The second... 27th May 2021 · 13 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Bahrain COVID-19 surge, Oman strikes, OPEC+ meeting The recent surge in COVID-19 cases in Bahrain – which comes despite a rapid vaccine rollout – will delay its economic recovery and serves as a warning that other countries’ vaccination campaigns have... 27th May 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Inflation risks build, central banks start to react The strength of inflation and expectations for a strong economic recovery have prompted a clear hawkish shift among Central European central banks. We think it will take time for a majority in favour... 27th May 2021 · 15 mins read
China Economics Focus The implications for China and the world of eCNY In this Focus we detail what is known about how China’s central bank digital currency (CBDC) will operate, when it will launch, what the People’s Bank is trying to achieve, and whether it will succeed... 27th May 2021 · 29 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Inflation edges higher Headline inflation rates have increased in almost all countries in the region since the turn of the year reflecting a combination of price pressures as economies re-open, higher food inflation and tax... 27th May 2021 · 15 mins read
RBI Watch Policy to remain loose for a long time yet We agree with financial markets and the analyst consensus that policy rates will be left on hold at the conclusion of the RBI’s upcoming MPC meeting on 4 th June, particularly given that the worst of... 27th May 2021 · 6 mins read
