Capital Daily Slowing exports may weigh on China’s stock market We expect China’s stock market to eke out only small gains over the next couple of years, as slowing exports and domestic demand continue to weigh on corporate earnings. 7th June 2021 · 5 mins read
China Data Response China Trade (May) Headline trade growth remained elevated last month. But trade volumes dropped back in levels terms and, while supply constraints are partly to blame, there are signs that demand may have peaked too. 7th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Springing back to life…again The economic outlook has brightened as the virus has subsided and governments have permitted people to return to the shops and restaurants as well as to travel a bit more freely. However... 4th June 2021 · 12 mins read
Capital Daily We don’t expect US Treasury yields to continue falling We don’t expect the small fall in long-dated US Treasury yields following May’s US Employment Report to last, and continue to expect yields to resume their earlier rise before long. 4th June 2021 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Democrats’ spending plans hit by reality check The Senate Parliamentarian delivered some bad news to the Democrats this week – ruling that they could introduce another reconciliation to the current budget, which would allow them to pass more of... 4th June 2021 · 7 mins read
Commodities Weekly Oil prices to rise a little further as OPEC+ hold the line In what proved to be one of the shortest OPEC+ meetings ever, the group agreed this week to stick to its previously planned increase in output in July. Oil prices rose sharply on the back of the... 4th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Peru & Mexico elections, (another) Argentine default? A victory for left-wing populist Pedro Castillo in Peru’s presidential election on Sunday would probably send local financial markets into a tailspin, but we doubt that investors would have much to... 4th June 2021 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Households still amassing excess savings, 3rd wave fears We don’t think that consumers’ reluctance to pay for their purchases on plastic, or their still-elevated cash holdings, are signs that they will be less willing to spend in the future. Meanwhile, the... 4th June 2021 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly Can the government spend its way to more births? While few observers believe the new three-child policy announced this week will do much to lift China’s birth rate, some are pinning higher hopes on the promise of more generous welfare benefits for... 4th June 2021 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Oil price rally continues, tourism re-opening Oil prices hit their highest level in more than two years this week and, combined with higher oil output over the rest of this year, will help to rein in large twin budget and current account deficits... 3rd June 2021 · 7 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (May.) Home purchase mortgage demand continued its downward trend in May and is now broadly in line with its pre-virus level. Easing credit conditions and the reopening of the economy will provide some... 2nd June 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Money & Credit (Apr.) April’s money and credit data suggests that consumers were still wary about taking on any additional debt. But even if consumers’ willingness to borrow remains limited, they have enough firepower to... 2nd June 2021 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We don’t expect the renminbi’s strength to last While the renminbi has appreciated recently – to the point that policymakers have stepped in to slow its rise – we continue to think that it will end the year weaker against the US dollar. 1st June 2021 · 6 mins read
US Housing Market Update House prices will avoid a dangerous bubble House price expectations have taken off since the start of the year, and that raises the risk of a self-reinforcing bubble forming. However, there are no signs that lenders are rapidly loosening... 1st June 2021 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update China PMIs may be as good as it gets The key takeaways from China’s May survey data are that while demand remains robust, supply shortages are leading to inventory drawdowns and price inflation. The data are broadly positive for... 1st June 2021 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack The three-child policy: too little, too late State media announced today that China’s family planning policy will be relaxed to allow all families to have three children, up from the current limit of two. This comes shortly after China’s once-a... 31st May 2021 · 13 mins read
