Africa Economics Focus The perils of deficit monetisation in Nigeria Nigeria’s government has turned to the central bank to plug ever larger budget deficits in recent years and policymakers are unlikely to kick their deficit monetisation habit, particularly if the... 14th June 2021 · 11 mins read
Commodities Weekly Industrial slowdown in China a headwind for prices The prices of most industrial commodities held up fairly well this week. However, the slowdown in broad credit growth and the fall in volume terms of China’s imports of industrial commodities in May... 11th June 2021 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Inflation fears, Euro 2020 hopes The mounting evidence that price pressures are rising is a threat to our forecast that CPI inflation won’t spend a long time above the 2% target until late in 2023. The good news, though, is that if... 11th June 2021 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Recoveries regaining pace after slow start to the year Global GDP growth slowed sharply in Q1 as most parts of the world grappled with renewed waves of coronavirus. The US and Korea were among the few exceptions where recoveries accelerated. But with... 11th June 2021 · 12 mins read
Global Markets Update We don’t expect higher inflation to derail US equities While we think that inflation in the US will prove more persistent than both the Fed and investors appear to anticipate, we still expect the S&P 500 to make some further gains over the next couple of... 11th June 2021 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly US-China rivalry: industrial policy, vaccine diplomacy The US Senate took a leaf out of China’s industrial policy playbook this week by passing USICA, a bill that earmarks $190bn in federal funding for strategic sectors and bears striking similarities... 11th June 2021 · 6 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Should we be worried about rental arrears? The early evidence suggests that the end of the evictions moratorium will not result in a huge wave of evictions. And while the end of the furlough scheme presents a risk, we suspect that the easing... 11th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Asset purchases to remain low but rates on hold At its June meeting we think the Bank of Japan may extend the deadline on its emergency lending facility from September to December. Beyond that point, it should further taper its purchases of short... 11th June 2021 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Lockdowns and bond yields ease The end of the lockdown in Victoria is an upside risk to our forecast that consumption will be unchanged in Australia in Q2. Meanwhile, S&P upgraded Australia’s credit rating outlook but that has... 11th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Inflation, monetary policy and the outlook for US & E-Z yields Despite the limited market reaction to today’s higher-than expected US CPI print, we still think that the yield of US 10-year Treasuries will rise this year as high inflation proves persistent. We... 10th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack Prospects for risky assets no longer seem as bright We are still anticipating an extremely rapid recovery in the global economy over the rest of this year. But even so, it has become more difficult to make the case that returns from risky assets across... 10th June 2021 · 13 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt vaccine, MENA tourism, Iran nuclear talks Egypt’s domestic vaccine production has got underway, but the country has a very long way to go before it can lift virus-related restrictions on a sustained basis. Egypt and Bahrain were added to the... 10th June 2021 · 7 mins read
China Data Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (May) Broad credit growth continued to slide in May and is now at its slowest since February last year. Evidence of policy tightening weighing on borrowing is clearest in bank loan growth which, apart from... 10th June 2021 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (May) Producer price inflation continued to surge and reached its highest level since September 2008 last month, on the back of a further rise in global commodity prices. That said, there are some signs in... 9th June 2021 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Home sales cool and prices will soon follow Both new and existing home sales dropped back in April and the May pending home sales index points to further declines in existing sales over the next couple of months. House price growth of over 13%... 8th June 2021 · 8 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lenders and Administrators Statistics (Q1 21) The rise in mortgage lending to its highest level since the financial crisis in Q1 was driven by a huge increase in existing homeowners moving. As a result, the 9% y/y increase in house prices... 8th June 2021 · 2 mins read
