US Economics Update Credit conditions ease following post-SVB squeeze The Fed’s latest Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey suggests that, while they remain tight, credit conditions have eased a little since the run of regional bank failures earlier this year prompted the... 6th November 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Doth the Old Lady protest too much on rate cuts? The surge in business insolvencies and slump in M4 money growth suggest that the Bank of England maybe protesting too much when it stressed this week that interest rate cuts are far away. But the Bank... 3rd November 2023 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly The renminbi’s rise in China’s global transactions For the first time, over half of China’s global transactions are being settled in renminbi. Most of this renminbi isn’t travelling far – the bulk of settlement is being driven by financial flows with... 3rd November 2023 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update Four things of note on the SNB this week The SNB has been uncharacteristically active this week, making a string of announcements about monetary policy, its balance sheet, minimum reserve requirement and lessons from the Credit Suisse... 2nd November 2023 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Five takeaways from the Financial Work Conference China’s leadership has outlined its wish list for financial sector development. It wants stricter oversight of financial institutions to ensure they serve the interests of the Party and country. This... 1st November 2023 · 5 mins read
UK Markets Outlook Higher for longer narrative has gone too far While we think sticky core inflation will mean that the Bank of England keeps interest rates at their peak of 5.25% until late in 2024, we think the markets have gone too far in concluding that rates... 30th October 2023 · 11 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response Lending to commercial property (Sep. 23) Net lending to property totaled £132mn in September, the lowest amount since February. But looking through the monthly volatility, on a 3-month basis lending has totaled more than £1.5bn in every... 30th October 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Credit (Sep. 2023) The further easing in bank lending in September will continue to weigh on activity, particularly in the housing market. This is consistent with our view that a mild recession may already be underway... 30th October 2023 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update Rise in unsecured lending exposes India’s weak spot Continued strong growth in unsecured lending is putting India’s banks at risk of rising defaults, a concern that is exacerbated by their relatively low loan loss absorption capacity. This raises the... 26th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigerian banks set to weather naira devaluation The large falls in Nigeria’s currency will push inflation up even further and is one reason behind our below consensus near-term GDP growth forecasts. But the good news is that the banking sector... 25th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Lending data remain consistent with recession The euro-zone money and credit data have been very weak all year and September’s data, released this morning, were more of the same. The activity surveys are now turning downwards too, supporting our... 25th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Inflation back to target by end-2024 Global headline inflation has fallen sharply from its peak a year ago and, despite a temporary setback due to higher fuel inflation, we expect it to fall a lot further over the coming year. The huge... 24th October 2023 · 16 mins read
US Economics Update Fed’s QT plans may not survive rate cuts next year The ongoing outflow of funds from the Fed’s reverse repo facility has completely offset the downward pressure on bank reserves from quantitative tightening (QT), suggesting that the Fed could continue... 18th October 2023 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. India’s economy appears still to be holding up well in the second half of the year. And although... 18th October 2023 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi set for weakest GDP growth in the Gulf this year Saudi Arabia’s economy is in a recession and, with oil output cuts extended until the end of this year at least, GDP will contract further. We think that the economy will shrink by 1.3% this year... 16th October 2023 · 4 mins read
China Rapid Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Sep.) After slowing sharply in Q2, broad credit growth edged up in August and held steady last month. Although a sharp rebound seems unlikely, we do think credit growth could pick up somewhat over the... 13th October 2023 · 3 mins read