Asia Chart Pack

Emerging Asia Chart Pack (May 2024)

Headline inflation across most of Emerging Asia is now either below or only slightly above central bank targets. Nevertheless, policymakers have struck a slightly more hawkish tone recently due to...

30th May 2024 · 1 min read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

​​RBNZ policy changes will ease lending standards​

The debt-to-income restrictions launched by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand today won’t restrict the flow of new mortgage lending. In fact, the concurrent easing of restrictions on loan-to-value...

28th May 2024 · 5 mins read

China Economics Weekly

Bank deposit exodus, chip self-sufficiency

The recent slowdown in deposit growth does not signal a recovery in risk appetite among firms and households. On the contrary, it is being driven by their reluctance to borrow and their preference for...

24th May 2024 · 5 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Saudi GDP growth will hinge on OPEC+ decision

After exiting recession in Q1, Saudi Arabia’s economy should continue to expand over the rest of this year on the back of strong private non-oil growth and higher oil output. But next month’s OPEC...

22nd May 2024 · 4 mins read

India Chart Pack

India Chart Pack (May 2024)

Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. India has been the star performer among major EMs over the past several quarters and the latest data...

20th May 2024 · 1 min read

Global Economics Update

Financial conditions loosening, but still restrictive

Financial conditions have loosened somewhat in advanced economies this year, suggesting that the peak drag from monetary tightening is behind us. However, outside Japan, they remain tight by past...

16th May 2024 · 4 mins read

China Rapid Response

Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Apr.)

Broad credit growth slowed sharply to its weakest pace on record last month. This threatens to derail the ongoing economic recovery and is likely to trigger additional policy easing. Increased fiscal...

13th May 2024 · 3 mins read

India Economics Weekly

Why we still think rate cuts will commence in Q3

The consensus is now expecting the RBI to begin its easing cycle in Q4. But the inflation outlook, as well as recent measures to ease liquidity constraints, suggest to us that a policy pivot will...

10th May 2024 · 4 mins read

UK Economics Chart Pack

UK Economics Chart Pack (May 2024)

While regular private sector wage growth in February and services CPI inflation in March were both a bit higher than the Bank of England had expected, we still think that the flatlining of the economy...

8th May 2024 · 1 min read

US Economics Update

Banks easing credit conditions amid weak demand

The second-quarter Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey revealed that, a year after the regional banking crisis, only a modest net share of banks are still tightening lending standards.

6th May 2024 · 1 min read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Which survey data are giving the best steer on activity?

The two survey measures of activity released out of Central and Eastern Europe this week appeared to offer quite different insights into the performance of the region’s economies, but we’re more...

3rd May 2024 · 7 mins read

China Economics Weekly

Developer financing still weak, green loans surge

The continued weakness of credit demand is holding back China's economic recovery. While lending to manufacturers continues to be strong – particularly for those engaged in green technology production...

3rd May 2024 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Saudi-US relations, NEOM financing, Morocco and the IMF

Reports suggest that Saudi Arabia and the US are close to reaching a new security pact which, if confirmed, could swing the Kingdom back towards the US's orbit. Meanwhile, Saudi’s flagship gigaproject...

2nd May 2024 · 7 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Money & Credit (Mar. 2024)

March’s money and credit figures provide further evidence that the drag from high interest rates is starting to fade, which supports our view that activity rebounded in Q1. And our forecast for...

30th April 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Markets Outlook

Markets overdo higher for longer narrative

While expectations for interest rate cuts in the UK have been pared back in recent months amid growing inflation concerns in the US, we think the markets have gone too far in concluding that UK...

29th April 2024 · 10 mins read