Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (Dec. 2023) Our Global Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. We think that global growth will undershoot consensus expectations in 2024 as the lagged... 15th December 2023 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Another year of sluggish growth Economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa will strengthen a little in 2024 but is likely to come in well below consensus expectations. OPEC+’s cautious approach to oil policy will keep a lid... 13th December 2023 · 22 mins read
China Rapid Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Nov.) Broad credit growth continued to rise in November thanks to a pick-up in government bond issuance, but it still came in below expectations. We think further policy support is on the way, but this is... 13th December 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Rising arrears not translating into forced sales The detailed mortgage lending data for Q3 show that the high cost of borrowing has continued to price many out of the market and made new BTL investment unattractive. But while arrears are rising... 13th December 2023 · 3 mins read
China Economic Outlook Stronger start, weaker end to 2024 China’s economy has regained some strength recently. We expect this to continue into 2024, on the back of support from fiscal policy and a further pick-up in household spending. But with property... 6th December 2023 · 18 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly S. Africa financial stability risks, Kenya’s housing levy The South African Reserve Bank’s Financial Stability Review out this week shone the spotlight on the risks posed by local banks’ growing holdings of government debt – risks that are only likely to... 1st December 2023 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: currency, sovereign, banking risks intertwine The falls in the Egyptian pound over the past year have increased the size of commercial banks’ net FX assets, but what has flown under the radar is banks’ growing exposure to the government’s FX debt... 29th November 2023 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Credit (Oct. 2023) October’s money and credit data suggest that higher interest rates are continuing to percolate through the economy. As a result, the drag on real consumer spending and business investment will soon... 29th November 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Nov. 2023) Our Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments After a sharp slowdown this year, GDP growth across the Middle East and North... 28th November 2023 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (Nov. 2023) Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. India’s economy continues to show resilience this year and annual GDP growth is likely to come in... 23rd November 2023 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Post SVB bank lending holding up well The SVB crisis back in mid-March sparked fears of a credit crunch, particularly among regional banks who are the principal source of funding for commercial real estate. Post-SVB, while the Fed’s... 22nd November 2023 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Trade deficit balloons, RBI cracks the whip The goods trade deficit soared to a record high in October and, though it is likely to moderate over the coming months, the overall current account deficit will probably come in a bit wider than we... 17th November 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia: recession nearing an end The latest Saudi GDP data paint a downbeat picture in which the recession has deepened amid oil output cuts. But the good news is that the recession looks to be coming to an end. And we think the... 15th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Credit data point to recessions in DMs Bank lending data from the major advanced economies confirmed that lending was very subdued in September and the latest bank lending surveys show that banks have since tightened their lending criteria... 9th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update European banks weathering CRE crash Despite the steepest crash in commercial property values on record, the credit risk and asset quality of European banks’ commercial real estate lending is holding up well. Further declines in values... 8th November 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM bank resilience improves, but risks continue to lurk Higher profitability has helped to boost EM banks’ financial positions over the past year and reduced the tail of weak banks that might struggle to cope with rising loan losses on their balance sheets... 7th November 2023 · 4 mins read