China Economic Outlook Economy will continue to struggle We expect greater stimulus next year. But with the zero-COVID policy here to stay, an abrupt turnaround in property construction unlikely and exports set to fall, policymakers face an uphill battle... 21st October 2022 · 23 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update “Lira-isation” policies are no cure for Turkey’s problems Policymakers in Turkey have doubled down on their new economic model of “lira-isation” by pursuing more extreme de-dollarisation policies in recent months. These appear to be having an impact in terms... 20th October 2022 · 8 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada avoids UK-style market fallout Canada is unlikely to succumb to the same crisis currently afflicting UK markets, but those problems are a reminder that rapidly rising interest rates have a habit of breaking things. In Canada’s case... 14th October 2022 · 7 mins read
US Economics Update End of QT may come sooner than first thought While the Fed isn’t likely to follow the Bank of England in pausing QT in response to upward pressure on long-term government bond yields, the reduction of the Fed’s balance sheet could end sooner and... 13th October 2022 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Sep.) Credit growth surprised to the upside last month, edging up thanks to official efforts to boost lending via policy banks. But wider appetite for borrowing still appears depressed, which will probably... 12th October 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Will the Fed’s tightening trigger financial instability? The recent liquidity issues faced by UK pensions funds and problems at a few European banks have led to speculation that the Fed’s interest rate hikes will trigger some form of financial instability... 7th October 2022 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly War developments destabilising Russia, NBP’s final act The macroeconomic fallout from Russia's call-up of military reservists in September and its formal annexation of Ukrainian territory last week has continued to mount, resulting in tighter Western... 7th October 2022 · 6 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Arrears to rise, but banks will survive The scale of the increase in mortgage rates means that a large rise in mortgage arrears and repossessions is probably unavoidable. But substantial capital buffers mean lenders will be able to absorb... 4th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: monetary tightening now biting hard Higher interest rates are already having an impact in CEE and a large part of the tightening of monetary conditions has yet to feed through. This will add to the headwinds facing growth in the coming... 29th September 2022 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi mortgage lending a slow-burning risk Mortgage lending in Saudi Arabia has ramped up in recent years as the government has tried to push up homeownership among Saudi nationals. Banks are well positioned in the event of future property... 20th September 2022 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Rupee channel could help Russian oil flow Indian imports from Russia have quadrupled since the outbreak of war in Ukraine, reflecting both higher energy prices and a surge in volumes. So long as Russia’s energy sector is not specifically... 16th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB QT would exacerbate bond market risks Reports that the ECB will soon start debating QT add to the risks facing euro-zone government bond markets. While the Bank could still expand its holdings of peripheral sovereign debt through the PEPP... 12th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Chile goes back to the drawing board The surprisingly strong rejection of Chile’s proposed new constitution has eased concerns about a radical shake up of the country’s economic model. But the constitutional process is set to continue... 9th September 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update The implications of the energy price cap for UK markets Notwithstanding the big policy announcements in the UK this week, we still think that the pound and the UK stock market will struggle over the rest of this year, but expect 10-year Gilts to rally. In... 9th September 2022 · 5 mins read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Aug.) There was a further deceleration in credit growth last month, with a new wave of lockdowns adding to the problems in the housing market that have been hitting credit demand. Credit growth will... 9th September 2022 · 2 mins read
BoE Watch Truss makes the Bank work harder Although the new Prime Minister, Liz Truss, has saved some of the blushes at the Bank of England by reducing the probable peak in inflation from at least 14.5% to around 10.5%, the resulting support... 8th September 2022 · 7 mins read
