China Rapid Response

Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jun.)

Both bank loan and broad credit growth hit a record low in June. While further fiscal loosening may provide some support to credit growth in the near-term, the continued weakness of the property...

12th July 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Economics Chart Pack

UK Economics Chart Pack (Jul. 2024)

The stronger-than-expected rebound in GDP in Q1 and the improving outlook for households suggests the next government, which the polls ahead of the election on 4th July imply will be a Labour one...

3rd July 2024 · 1 min read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Money & Lending (May 2024)

May’s money and lending data provided a bit further evidence that the drag from higher activity is starting to fade. Together with our view that the Bank of England will cut interest rates from 5.25%...

1st July 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Money and lending growth likely to remain slow

May’s data show a continued gradual increase in money and lending growth, though both remain slow. While the ECB’s loosening cycle is now underway, money and lending growth are set to remain subdued.

27th June 2024 · 2 mins read

India Chart Pack

India Chart Pack (June 2024)

Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Prime Minister Modi begins his third term with a weakened mandate, but an economy that is primed to...

25th June 2024 · 1 min read

China Economics Weekly

PBOC: Don’t worry about the weakness of credit

Governor Pan Gongsheng’s comments about PBOC bond buying and about changes to the monetary policy framework caught the headlines this week. But it was what he said about weak credit growth that caught...

21st June 2024 · 6 mins read

Global Economics Update

What if central banks stopped remunerating reserves?

The proposal to save governments money by ending interest payments on commercial banks’ reserves is a lot more complicated than some of its advocates suggest. The extreme version could either cause...

20th June 2024 · 5 mins read

Asia Economic Outlook

Policy easing to begin soon

We expect economic growth in most countries in Asia to slow in the second half of 2024, as tighter fiscal policy, high interest rates and weaker global growth all weigh on demand. Inflation is back to...

20th June 2024 · 28 mins read

India Economic Outlook

Economy in good shape as Modi 3.0 begins

Prime Minister Modi begins his third term with a weakened mandate, but an economy that is primed to grow by 6.5-7% per year between 2024 and 2026. That would put India on course to become the world’s...

20th June 2024 · 16 mins read

China Rapid Response

Bank Lending & Broad Credit (May)

Bank loan growth in China was the slowest on record in May, but accelerated government bond issuance helped broader credit growth edge up. Fiscal loosening should support further gains in the near...

14th June 2024 · 2 mins read

Global Economics Chart Pack

Global Economics Chart Pack (June 2024)

Our Global Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The latest data suggest that economic activity has continued to improve in the past...

12th June 2024 · 0 mins read

UK Housing Market Update

Recovery in lending unlikely to gain more momentum

The granular data on mortgage lending in Q1 contained some signs of relief following the dip in mortgage rates at the end of last year. But given that decline in rates has since reversed, we don’t...

11th June 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Housing Market Focus

Interest rate cuts won’t reduce mortgage costs much

Just as fixed mortgage rates have shielded homeowners from rising interest rates, they will prevent households’ interest costs from falling rapidly when interest rates are cut. While borrowers on...

6th June 2024 · 14 mins read

Europe Economics Update

France rating downgrade won’t be the last

With the government debt-to-GDP ratio likely to trend up over the medium term, and the budget deficit set to stay above 3% of GDP, we suspect that France will be subject to further rating downgrades...

3rd June 2024 · 3 mins read

Asia Economics Weekly

Vietnam: Rates to end the year lower, not higher

The risk of monetary tightening in Vietnam has risen over the past few weeks due to concerns about the currency and inflation. We still think a rate hike is unlikely. But even if the central bank (SBV...

31st May 2024 · 7 mins read