Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How will the Fed loosening cycle impact the Gulf? The US Federal Reserve looks certain to start its loosening cycle this evening and, by virtue of their dollar pegs and open capital accounts, central banks across the Gulf will follow suit. Lower... 18th September 2024 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Aug.) Both broad credit and bank loan growth slowed in August, coming in below expectations. (See Chart 1.) While stronger government spending should give the economy a boost over the coming months, that... 13th September 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Recovery in mortgage lending has further to run Granular data showed that mortgage lending continued to recover in Q2, supported by a decline in the average mortgage rate on new lending. Our view that mortgage rates will fall further next year... 10th September 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Focus How to gauge recession risk in DMs Getting an early steer on whether an economy has entered recession requires a holistic assessment of a variety of indicators to see if multiple variables are flagging recession at the same time. In... 9th September 2024 · 16 mins read
Europe Economics Update Draghi & Letta proposals are no silver bullet In principle, an increase in EU integration and cooperation, as proposed by Enrico Letta in April and Mario Draghi today, could increase output in the long run. But any progress will be slow, and the... 9th September 2024 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Mortgage rate cut would offer modest consumption boost Officials in China are reportedly planning to reduce the interest rate on existing mortgages. A similar move last year did little to lift consumption because the reduction in mortgage rates was offset... 6th September 2024 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Jul. 2024) July’s money and lending data provide further evidence that a steady improvement in the flow and demand of credit is supporting the economic recovery. That said, credit growth is unlikely to... 30th August 2024 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Taiwan defies dovish shift among Asia’s central banks The common theme across the three central bank meetings in Asia this week was that inflation concerns are fading, partly due to a rebound in currencies, and policymakers appear a bit more concerned... 23rd August 2024 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi’s credit splurge a slow-burning risk The rapid expansion of commercial bank lending in Saudi Arabia has raised the risk of an increase in non-performing loans and heightened the exposure of the banking sector to both the real estate... 20th August 2024 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Not a balance sheet recession, yet Weak credit data has stoked fears of a balance sheet recession in China. While the economy is still far from reaching that point, the private sector will eventually start to cut down on its borrowing... 16th August 2024 · 6 mins read
China Rapid Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jul.) Broad credit growth ticked up in July, while bank loan growth only slowed a touch. (See Chart 1.) We expect a continued acceleration in government bond issuance to support a further expansion of... 13th August 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Aug. 2024) At its last policy meeting, the Bank of England still sounded a long way from being assured that inflation and wage growth will continue to ease. As a result, we doubt the recent moves in global... 7th August 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus ECB rate cuts will do little to boost GDP We suspect that the boost to euro-zone economic growth from interest rate cuts over the next year or two will be quite small. The ECB is likely to lower its policy rates only gradually and leave them... 7th August 2024 · 10 mins read
