Commercial real estate, smaller banks face ‘doom loop’ risk, warns Capital Economics Commercial real estate’s link to smaller banks in the U.S. is vulnerable and has not gotten enough attention after recent strain in the banking system, according to Capital Economics. 28th March 2023 · MarketWatch
Capital Daily European G-SIBs need a better RoE to justify a higher valuation While the shares of Global Systemically Important Banks (G-SIBs) in Europe bounced today on the news that a buyer has been found for parts of the failed US lender, Silicon Valley Bank, their price... 27th March 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Bank lending very weak even before recent turmoil The February money and credit data show that even before the recent pressure on European banks, net bank lending was extremely weak and consistent with the economy contracting sharply. 27th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Surging credit card spending not a cause for concern The surge in credit card spending over the past year hasn’t been any larger than the increase in overall consumer spending. And with personal credit accounting for a small share of overall credit, a... 27th March 2023 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Are small banks and CRE the next doom loop? Fears over small regional banks in the US have focused on the unrealised losses on debt securities and deposit insurance but, in what would have echoes of the savings and loan crisis, maybe we should... 24th March 2023 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed right to expect economic hit from bank turmoil The Fed will need to wait at least another few weeks for clearer evidence of the impact from the recent banking sector turmoil, but we expect economic weakness will convince officials to move to the... 24th March 2023 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Bank shares aren’t bound to underperform in a credit crunch Needless to say, economic downturns are usually bad news for US banks’ share prices. But banks haven’t always underperformed the overall stock market in a recession – even when there has been a... 24th March 2023 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Update What to make of the banking turmoil & the dollar The ongoing struggles of the banking sector in the US and elsewhere has muddled the outlook for the dollar. But while we think the balance of probability has shifted against the greenback, we continue... 24th March 2023 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe’s banks, the ECB and pension reform in France There a plenty of reasons to be cautiously optimistic about Europe’s banks. While the renewed sell-off in bank equities on Friday show that it is too soon to sound the all clear, the latest comments... 24th March 2023 · 8 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Keep calm and carry on hiking The UBS takeover of Credit Suisse may tighten lending conditions slightly due to reduced competition and potentially tighter regulation. But we don’t think there will be a significant impact on... 24th March 2023 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly No signs of stress in Japan’s financial markets There has so far been no sign of stress in Japan’s financial markets as a result of the banking crises in the US and the demise of Credit Suisse. Meanwhile, the government has announced another... 24th March 2023 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA on a knife-edge With the minutes of the RBA's March meeting pointing to a slightly more dovish stance, there are growing risks to our forecast for continued tightening in April and May. We think the case for a pause... 24th March 2023 · 6 mins read
Event Asia Drop-In: What does the recent banking sector turmoil mean for Asia? 1680163200 Although the recent flare-up of financial stability concerns has been a US-Europe story, its reverberations could be global.
