UK Economics Update Auction results suggest that Bank has more work to do The relatively subdued demand for today’s Bank of England auction of three month money may not mean that banks do not want extra cash, rather that they are unable to get their hands on it. Either way... 15th April 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How worried should we be about German banks? The recent stream of write-downs by German banks might look like a worrying sign that the crisis in financial markets is set to have a devastating impact on the economy. But there are a number of... 8th April 2008 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus How strong are Emerging Europe's banks? We do not expect Emerging Europe to suffer a major banking crisis despite the recent collapse of major Western institutions such as Bear Stearns and Northern Rock. But while there is scope for the... 3rd April 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Bank's new auctions are no silver bullet The Bank of England’s announcement that it will inject more liquidity into the money markets is a welcome development that should help to bring interbank interest rates down to more normal levels. But... 11th March 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update End of 100%+ LTVs to dent household good sales The popularity of mortgages with loan to value ratios (LTVS) of over 100% appears to have been a strong support to household goods sales over the past year or so. The decline in these products is... 10th March 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update End of 100%+ LTVs to dent household good sales The popularity of mortgages with loan to value ratios (LTVS) of over 100% appears to have been a strong support to household goods sales over the past year or so. The decline in these products is... 10th March 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Rising LIBOR means that the MPC will have to work harder The recent renewed rise in interbank lending rates is an unwelcome development which means that the MPC will have to work harder to support economic activity. This supports our view that interest... 4th March 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Corporates face tighter credit conditions across the board Attention has focused on the fact that credit conditions are tightening for even non-subprime households. However, corporates are suffering too. Not only have banks tightened their lending conditions... 4th March 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus How hard will the credit crisis hit the City? We estimate that two thirds of the financial and business services (FBS) sector – or one fifth of the total economy - will be directly adversely affected by the recent turmoil in financial markets. We... 28th February 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Chancellor to confess to breaking the rules As Northern Rock’s £100bn of liabilities have already been taken onto the Government’s books, nationalisation does not change anything from an accounting point of view. However, it does mean that the... 18th February 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Northern Rock another blow to the public finances The decision by National Statistics to take Northern Rock onto the Government’s books may not necessarily break the Government’s Sustainable Investment Rule. Nonetheless, it clearly deals another blow... 7th February 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Widening mortgage spreads a sign of tightening lending criteria The increases in tracker rates announced by some mortgage lenders over the past few days add to other evidence that the recent improvement in the situation in financial markets has not prevented a... 28th January 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Widening mortgage spreads a sign of tightening lending criteria The increases in tracker rates announced by some mortgage lenders over the past few days add to other evidence that the recent improvement in the situation in financial markets has not prevented a... 28th January 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Northern Rock another fiscal pinch The probable nationalisation of Northern Rock is unlikely to lead to a clear breach of the Chancellor’s fiscal rules, which apply over the whole economic cycle. Nonetheless, it would further underline... 17th January 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Lower LIBOR will not prevent interest rates falling to 4% The rapid fall in interbank interest rates towards more normal levels is a welcome development but does not negate the need for further cuts in official interest rates. The growing emergence that the... 11th January 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Have fixed rate mortgages changed the housing market? The popularity of fixed rate mortgages in recent years appears to have dampened the sensitivity of the housing market to rising interest rates. That is not to say that higher interest rates will not... 17th May 2007 · 1 min read
