UK inflation rises less than expected to 2.2% in July Ruth Gregory, economist at consultancy Capital Economics, said the “smaller-than-expected rise” in consumer prices and “the sharp fall in services inflation” would “reassure the Bank of England . .... 14th August 2024 · Financial Times
China Rapid Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jul.) Broad credit growth ticked up in July, while bank loan growth only slowed a touch. (See Chart 1.) We expect a continued acceleration in government bond issuance to support a further expansion of... 13th August 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Aug. 2024) At its last policy meeting, the Bank of England still sounded a long way from being assured that inflation and wage growth will continue to ease. As a result, we doubt the recent moves in global... 7th August 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus ECB rate cuts will do little to boost GDP We suspect that the boost to euro-zone economic growth from interest rate cuts over the next year or two will be quite small. The ECB is likely to lower its policy rates only gradually and leave them... 7th August 2024 · 10 mins read
Global Economics Update Financial conditions still loosening in most DMs Market turmoil has not yet led to a tightening of financial conditions in the US and most other advanced economies. That’s because borrowing costs have fallen sharply as investors have grown to expect... 7th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update The financial stability risks from recent market moves Even though it’s difficult to identify what could have broken as a result of the recent rapid market moves, a stronger yen is a bigger threat to the health of Japan’s financial institutions than... 7th August 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EM Financial Risk Monitor (Aug. 2024) Financial vulnerabilities have continued to ease across EMs. Our EM aggregate currency crisis risk indicator hit a multi-year low in Q2, with especially large falls in Turkey and Pakistan. Sovereign... 1st August 2024 · 1 min read
US Economics Update What to make of the rise in business bankruptcies? Business bankruptcies rose further in the first half of 2024, mainly due to higher Chapter 11 filings as firms were forced to restructure their debts. It is typically the change in borrowing costs... 31st July 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Markets Outlook Upside risks to interest rates have increased We still think that a fading in services inflation and below-target CPI inflation will prompt the Bank of England to cut interest rates from 5.25% now to 3.00% by the end of 2025, rather than to 4.00%... 31st July 2024 · 10 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Jun. 2024) June’s money and lending data provided a bit more evidence that the drag from higher activity is starting to fade, which supports our view that the economic recovery may be a bit stronger than most... 29th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone continues sluggish recovery Data released this week suggest that the euro-zone recovery is fizzling out and leave us comfortable with our below-consensus forecasts for economic growth. Next week, we expect to learn that euro... 26th July 2024 · 11 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Sticky services inflation raises upside risks Inflation still looks set to be in line with central banks’ targets next year (see Chart 1), but upside risks have increased outside the US. With the sharp falls in energy and food inflation behind us... 25th July 2024 · 16 mins read
China Rapid Response China Medium-term Facility Rate (Jul. 2024) The PBOC’s decision to cut the 1-year interest rate on its medium-term lending facility (MLF) earlier today is unusual for two reasons. First, the 20bp reduction is double the size of the PBOC’s usual... 25th July 2024 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (July 2024) Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The economy is primed to grow by 6.5-7% per year between 2024 and 2026, which would put India on... 24th July 2024 · 1 min read
China Rapid Response China Policy Rates (Jul. 2024) The PBOC has lowered its short-term policy rate for the first time since last summer, in line with our expectation for a cut this quarter. Its efforts to prevent long-term yields from falling... 22nd July 2024 · 2 mins read
