Europe Economics Update Bank stress tests leave unanswered questions The EU bank stress tests may have helped to reduce uncertainties around the health of Europe’s largest banks’ balance sheets. But concerns remain over the way the tests were constructed and we are... 26th July 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update No quick fix for bank lending Today’s paper on financial regulation beefs up the Government’s plans to expand the Bank of England’s toolkit. But there are still big uncertainties about how this will operate in practice, while the... 26th July 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Bank privatisations unlikely to support the recovery Recent press reports have suggested that the Government may be considering an early sale of some of its banking sector assets. However, any sales are unlikely to improve the fiscal outlook and may... 22nd July 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update BoJ survey refutes claims of a credit crunch The Bank of Japan’s latest Senior Loan Officer Survey confirms that banks are more than willing to lend. Demand for loans remains weak, especially from firms, but there is no support here for the... 21st July 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asia capital inflows hostage to worries on growth Since May, foreigners have returned to being large net buyers of all the Asian stock markets where flows data are available, with the exceptions of Thailand and the Philippines. We continue to expect... 19th July 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update How can the Government get banks to lend? One of the Government’s biggest economic challenges is getting the banks to lend more, with the major banks reportedly meeting with the Chancellor today to discuss the issue. In the near-term, this is... 15th July 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Weak lending is poor evidence of a credit crunch The persistent sluggishness of bank lending has encouraged talk that a shortage of credit is undermining the recovery in Japan’s economy. We still do not find this argument remotely convincing. All... 12th July 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB to support banks as stress tests bring little comfort Last week’s confirmation that stress tests of EU banks will be published on 23rd July did little to ease fears about the sector, probably because the scenarios considered will not be adverse enough... 12th July 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Slowdown in reserve accumulation unlikely to last China’s foreign exchange purchases slumped in Q2, but will probably pick up again as the trade surplus rises in the second half of the year. 12th July 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB to maintain support for banks After leaving interest rates unchanged today, the ECB confirmed that it would continue to support the banking sector with unlimited liquidity provision. And its cautious tone regarding the economic... 8th July 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update European stress tests nowhere near stressful enough The announcement that fairly detailed stress tests of EU banks will be published later this month brings only limited comfort. The adverse scenario that will be considered is nowhere near adverse... 8th July 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (May), Bank Credit & EWS (Jun) The relapse in machinery orders in May was not quite large enough to conclude that the investment recovery is over before it has really begun, but it is unwelcome. The resilience of sentiment in the... 8th July 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Banking strains won’t ease soon On the face of it, there were some encouraging signs last week that the euro-zone banking system is becoming less reliant on the ECB for funding and is switching to borrowing from more conventional... 5th July 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.) Growth of the Monetary Policy Committee’s favoured measure of the money supply has continued to pick up pace, but we doubt that this means that a strong pick-up in money spending is soon to come. 29th June 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Mortgage Lending (May.) The latest mortgage lending numbers from the Bank of England were little changed from last month, indicating a lending market that remains very subdued. 29th June 2010 · 1 min read
