UK Economics Update Project Merlin no magic fix for bank lending We doubt that the lending commitments announced as part of today’s “Project Merlin” will lead to a significant pick-up in bank lending growth. 9th February 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Bank debt plans won’t solve Ireland’s fiscal problems Speculation is growing that the next Irish Government will attempt to restructure some of the nationalised banks’ senior debt. But such a move, while no doubt popular with taxpayers, would do little... 9th February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Project Merlin no magic fix for bank lending We doubt that the lending commitments announced as part of today’s “Project Merlin” will lead to a significant pick-up in bank lending growth. 9th February 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Jan.) The decline in the current conditions component of the Economy Watchers Survey (EWS) in January suggests that activity remained weak at the start of the first quarter after the likely contraction in... 8th February 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Downgrade not catastrophic but fiscal crisis looms S&P’s decision to downgrade Japan’s sovereign credit rating one notch (to AA-) today may not be a big deal in itself, but it supports our fears that 2011 will be the year when Japan’s dire fiscal... 27th January 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Will the Emerald Isle ever regain its sparkle? The recent bail-out and banking support measures may have pulled Ireland back from the brink of imminent disaster. But the economy and the public finances remain in an extremely precarious position... 26th January 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spanish bank plans unlikely to be a game changer News that the Spanish Government will force the troubled banks to boost their capital ratios is an encouraging sign that it is trying to tackle the economy’s fundamental problems. But we doubt that... 25th January 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Banking recovery continues despite familiar risks The good news is that the region’s banking sector is starting to find its feet. The bad news is that familiar vulnerabilities remain in those countries that were hit hardest during the global crisis... 18th January 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Credit risks are growing, but banking sector still strong Latin America’s financial system is still in good shape, especially when compared to that of the developed world. Nevertheless, lending has accelerated throughout the region and default rates, notably... 18th January 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Dec.) The Economy Watchers Survey (EWS) suggests that the recovery may have regained some momentum in December, but the outlook component is still weaker than current conditions and both are well below the... 12th January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK CIPS Report on Services (Dec.) & Credit Conditions (Q4) December’s CIPS/Markit report on services suggested that the economy ended 2010 on a much weaker note than the recent upbeat industrial data had indicated. What’s more, the Bank of England’s latest... 6th January 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Downside risks stem mainly from crippling debt In the last US Weekly of the year we want to flag up the main risks surrounding our new forecast that GDP will grow by 3.0% in 2011, before slowing to 2.0% in 2012. The main upside risk is that we are... 27th December 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The view from the ground - Q4 2010 China’s businesses have grown in confidence in the last quarter but banks and consumers are far less upbeat. Banks are increasingly worried about overheating and the need for policy tightening... 16th December 2010 · 1 min read
US Data Response Negative Equity (Q3) The fall in the proportion of homeowners in negative equity in the third quarter offers little comfort since it was driven by foreclosures rather than a rise in prices. The second downward leg in... 13th December 2010 · 1 min read
US Data Response Flow of Funds (Q3) The latest Flow of Funds accounts from the Fed show that the public sector is now accumulating debt at a faster pace than the private sector is paying it down. 10th December 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Portugal's toughest tests still lie ahead The ECB’s announcement that it would step up its bond purchase programme and extend liquidity provision to the banking sector has eased immediate pressure on Portugal. But the initial positive market... 9th December 2010 · 1 min read
