Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack IMF deals in choppy waters Balance of payments strains have prompted Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia to turn to the IMF over the past six months or so, but agreements in Egypt and Tunisia are faltering. The IMF postponed its first... 26th April 2023 · 12 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Core inflation to fall, but upside risks have grown Headline inflation looks set to fall sharply as energy effects subside and the let-up in product shortages reduces goods inflation further. We also expect services inflation to decrease as demand... 26th April 2023 · 15 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Can Chile’s private sector cope with higher interest rates? There’s little evidence (so far) that the surge in interest rate is leading to widespread debt servicing problems in Chile’s private sector, but there are pockets of vulnerability in the household... 25th April 2023 · 4 mins read
Event Europe Drop-In: The euro-zone inflation outlook and the ECB May meeting 1683036000 What do recent data signal about recession risk in the euro-zone? How high will the ECB take the policy rate to rein in inflation pressure?
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s fiscal rule, shifting monetary policy tide? The new fiscal framework presented to congress by Brazil’s government this week would, if implemented in full, go a long way towards stabilising Brazil's public finances. But there are several hurdles... 21st April 2023 · 8 mins read
Global Economics Update Answering your questions about our new FCIs We held an online Drop-In yesterday to present our new financial conditions indices and discuss how conditions have evolved in the wake of SVB’s collapse. (See a recording here). This Update addresses... 21st April 2023 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly More trouble brewing down under Things will get worse before they get better for the Antipodean economies. House prices in New Zealand have plummeted by 18% from their January 2022 peak. And with affordability extremely stretched... 21st April 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Mixed earnings unlikely to change outlook for the banking sector Q1 earnings reports from US banks have been a mixed bag thus far; we still believe the sector faces a difficult year ahead. 17th April 2023 · 5 mins read
Event Global Drop-In: How tight are financial conditions in the wake of the bank turmoil? 1681999200 As the dust settles on March’s banking sector turmoil, there’s intensifying focus on how credit is being affected by heightened fear.
Europe Economics Update Bank stress tests to leave some questions unanswered Recent events have highlighted that meeting regulatory capital and liquidity requirements does not guarantee that banks will be financially stable. The forthcoming EU bank stress test results should... 17th April 2023 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response Commercial Property Lending (Mar.) March’s net commercial real estate lending slowed sharply following SVB’s collapse early in the month. Lending against multifamily fell for the first time in 18 months, driven by a reduction in small... 17th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Strains have eased but banks aren’t out of the woods yet Financial market strains have eased over recent weeks, though some pockets of uncertainty remain and our sense is that the risk of further problems emerging in the coming months remains high. 14th April 2023 · 11 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Credit Suisse post mortem, Norwegian stagflation Swiss lawmakers' vote against the Credit Suisse rescue package this week does not impact the bank's takeover by UBS or the associated government guarantees. However, it has highlighted the need for... 14th April 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Mixed signals for now but broader weakness to come Recent data appear to confirm that economic activity held up better than feared at the start of 2023. Retail sales rose in most major economies over the first two months of the year, world industrial... 13th April 2023 · 13 mins read
UK Economics Update Credit conditions still consistent with weaker activity The fading effects of the mini-budget meant that bank lending conditions to households and businesses didn’t deteriorate any further in Q1. But the latest credit conditions survey doesn’t capture the... 13th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Governor Ueda to cull YCC as his first act Japan has escaped the recent banking turmoil in the US and Switzerland relatively unscathed. While banks face some risks arising from their lending exposure overseas, there are no signs of liquidity... 12th April 2023 · 11 mins read
