UK Economic Outlook Real pay finally to start rising Real pay is finally about to start rising again. But the need for households to repair their balance sheets will keep the recovery in consumer spending modest. 6th August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul. 12) Broad money and lending growth plumbed new lows in June, supporting our subdued forecasts for both inflation and economic growth. 31st July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Jun.) June’s household borrowing figures seem to have been depressed by a series of temporary factors. Nonetheless, there are also signs that both the underlying supply of and demand for credit is fading. 30th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Massive revision needed to alter the big picture Last week’s surprisingly poor GDP figures once again called into question the reliability of the data. But the weakness is consistent with the low level of construction orders and the slowdown in the... 30th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Fears about impact of downgrade overdone The news that the economy contracted for a third successive quarter has led to renewed warnings that the UK will lose its AAA credit rating. We have long been of the view that the weakness of the... 26th July 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update An end to renminbi appreciation? The renminbi’s rise against the dollar stalled at the beginning of 2012 and the currency has fallen back in the last few weeks. The scale of depreciation to date is small – little more than 1% since... 26th July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spanish bail-out will leave little in the pot A Spanish sovereign bail-out would leave little left in the pot to provide further assistance to Portugal and Ireland and, much more crucially, to deal with serious problems in Italy. 24th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Further rate cut looks likely A further interest rate cut is looking increasing likely. We have pencilled in a 25bps reduction in November, taking official rates to 0.25%. And it is possible that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC... 24th July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is Greece about to move back into the spotlight? The formation of a ‘pro bail-out’ government may have recently shifted the markets’ spotlight away from Greece. But the Troika’s visit to Athens, which begins tomorrow, looks set to prompt renewed... 23rd July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Jubilee boost short-lived Although consumer spending appears to have boosted at the start of June by the extended bank holiday, the fillip did not last for long and the underlying trend in spending still looks pretty mediocre... 19th July 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Price pressures have eased across the Middle East Inflation pressures are easing in most countries in the Middle East and North Africa region. The drop in global commodity prices has led to a fall in food price inflation across the region. Meanwhile... 19th July 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Loan demand rises in response to government policy According to the Bank of Japan’s Senior Loan Officer Survey (SLOS), there was a large divergence in loan demand in Q2. Household demand picked-up but business demand dropped. Rising household... 19th July 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Recovery on hold as economy continues to slow The Japanese economy continued to slow throughout the second quarter and businesses expect only an anaemic recovery in Q3. The economy remains reliant on government support, with reconstruction... 19th July 2012 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Labour market health belies talk of hard landing China’s economy is growing at one of the slowest rates in years but the labour market is showing few signs of strain. Migrant wages were up 13% y/y last quarter. There are still more jobs being... 19th July 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Euro-zone drags down global recovery The euro-zone crisis is taking its toll on the rest of the world. Activity slowed in all major economies in the second quarter, including the US, China and Japan. We expect growth to pick up in the US... 18th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed could launch its own "funding for lending" scheme Joining the dots, it is becoming clear that the Fed, and its Chairman Ben Bernanke in particular, are considering launching a US version of the Bank of England's new Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS)... 18th July 2012 · 1 min read
