China Rapid Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Apr.) A widely-anticipated acceleration in credit growth didn’t materialise last month, suggesting that momentum may already be fading in China’s post-zero-COVID rebound. 11th May 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Bank of Japan kicking the can down the road Governor Ueda presided over his first policy meeting late last month and opted to keep all monetary policy settings, including Yield Curve Control (YCC), completely unchanged. To be sure, Mr Ueda also... 11th May 2023 · 11 mins read
Capital Daily Credit spreads still look too low to us With credit conditions tightening and, in our view, recessions looming in the US and other advanced economies, we think it is only a matter of time before corporate credit spreads widen. 9th May 2023 · 6 mins read
US Economics Update SLOOS shows banks tightening credit conditions The recent turmoil in the banking sector doesn’t appear to have triggered a severe further tightening in credit conditions, but since lending standards were already being tightened to a degree only... 8th May 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Core inflation too high for ECB to stop hiking April’s inflation data provided little sign that underlying price pressures are easing. Admittedly, the core rate edged down from 5.7% y/y in March to 5.6%, which was the first decline in 15 months... 5th May 2023 · 10 mins read
Global Economics Update Hikes nearly over, but most of their effect still to come While the hiking cycles of all major central banks will soon be in the rear-view mirror, most of their impact on activity lies on the road ahead. Based on the latest national accounts data, we... 9th May 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How feasible is a BRICS currency? Over the weekend, President-elect Donald Trump threatened a 100% import tariff on the BRICS countries unless they pledge not to create their own currency. In this note from 2023, we outlined the... 4th May 2023 · 6 mins read
UK Data Response Money & Credit (Mar.) March’s money and credit data showed that the collapse of the US bank SVB and the takeover of Credit Suisse in early March triggered a small withdrawal of funds from the overall UK banking system... 4th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Double jeopardy if you bank in Spain Over the past year, Spanish households have seen a bigger increase in their cost of borrowing than those of any other large euro-zone economy, but the increase in the interest paid on deposits has... 4th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Credit conditions continue to tighten March’s money and credit data, as well as the Bank Lending Survey carried out in March and April, show no clear signs that the recent troubles in the US and Swiss banking sectors have had an impact on... 2nd May 2023 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Bank stress continues with First Republic collapse The collapse of First Republic Bank is no big surprise – it had been teetering on the edge since suffering $100bn in deposit withdrawals mostly in March – but it’s a timely reminder that banking... 1st May 2023 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Riksbank’s dovish hike, Credit Suisse Q1 results Credit Suisse's Q1 results revealed the scale of the crisis that led to its demise, with CHF67bn of deposit outflows during the quarter. The quantum of SNB lending to Credit Suisse during the quarter... 28th April 2023 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Update CRE downturn could deepen looming recession The turmoil in the US banking system is likely to set off the worst decline in Japan’s commercial real estate prices since the Global Financial Crisis by prompting foreign investors to stop buying... 27th April 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Tight credit conditions still pose a threat to risky assets Deposit outflows at First Republic Bank don’t tell us much more than we already knew about the state of the broader US banking sector. But it highlights the evidence of an ongoing credit crunch, and... 26th April 2023 · 6 mins read
US Fed Watch Rates close to peak The Fed looks set to deliver a final 25bp rate hike at the FOMC meeting next week, taking the fed funds target range to a peak of 5.00%-5.25%. Although the accompanying statement may leave open the... 26th April 2023 · 8 mins read
