Emerging Europe Economics Update Debate over size of Russian outflows misses the point A spat towards the end of last year over the true scale of capital flight from Russia risks missing the bigger picture, which is that capital continues to flow out of the country in the first place... 8th January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec. 12) The broad money supply is continuing to expand at a decent pace, but growth has been easing off. Meanwhile, bank lending remains weak although there is some indication of a loosening in credit... 4th January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Credit Conditions Survey (Q4) & Construction PMI (Dec.) The tone of both of today’s commercial property data releases was downbeat. Although the latest Bank of England survey showed that credit supply in the sector has improved slightly, borrowers are not... 3rd January 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov. 12) The latest euro-zone monetary data brought no signs of any easing in the severe credit constraints facing both households and companies in the single currency area. 3rd January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Credit Conditions Survey (Q4) & Productivity (Q3) The Bank of England’s latest Credit Conditions Survey provided further evidence that the positive impact of the Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS) is building. What’s more, the beneficial effects are... 3rd January 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov.) The incoming LDP government is likely to put increasing pressure on the Bank of Japan to enact more aggressive monetary easing. But the latest data show that monetary conditions are already extremely... 19th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Slow progress towards banking union The European Council finally managed to reach some important compromises last week, allowing progress to be made towards setting up an EU-wide bank supervisor in the form of the ECB. But, presumably... 17th December 2012 · 1 min read
China Data Response Lending and total social financing (Nov.) Today’s lending data released by the People’s Bank support the view that current policy support is insufficient to drive a prolonged acceleration in economic growth. 11th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Households still paying down debt The household debt to disposable income ratio fell to a nine-year low of 113% in the third quarter, down from a peak of 134%. The deleveraging process will continue for a few more years, although with... 10th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Negative bank rates won't depress the Swiss franc for long Credit Suisse’s announcement that it will charge other banks for holding large Swiss franc deposits with it has helped to ease the pressure on the currency for now. But while we have revised down our... 4th December 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS/Markit Report on Manuf. (Nov.) & FLS usage (Q3) The small improvement in the UK CIPS/Markit manufacturing survey in November did little to change the fundamental picture of a struggling industrial sector. Meanwhile, the first data on the usage of... 3rd December 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Concerns over student loans overdone The rapid rise in the value of outstanding student loans and the spike in the default rate have fuelled fears that student loans are the next bubble. Aside from the risk that excessive borrowing early... 30th November 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Oct.) Household borrowing growth remains pretty weak, although there are tentative signs that the Bank of England’s Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS) is starting to have a positive impact. 29th November 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How will Basel III affect the demand for gold? There is still widespread confusion and uncertainty over the impact that the Basel III regulations might have on the demand for gold. Gold is an “asset” rather than “capital” and therefore... 28th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct. 12) The latest euro-zone monetary data revealed a further small acceleration in the growth of money and bank lending in the region. But weak credit growth remains a major constraint on economic activity... 28th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Could Cyprus be the first domino to fall? The news that Cyprus is about to run out of money has given a dangerous new angle to the euro-zone crisis. The economy is so small that a bail-out would be very cheap, but the Government will be... 22nd November 2012 · 1 min read
