US Economics Weekly US depositors unlikely to suffer same fate as Cypriots The Cypriot bank bailout, which imposed losses on bondholders and large depositors, is never likely to be repeated in the US. For a start, while the Cypriot banking system is equivalent to a massive... 1st April 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China moves to manage shadow banking risks The latest tightening of rules on wealth management products will help manage risks building up in China’s shadow banking system. But the long-term route to reducing risk is careful liberalisation of... 28th March 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Monetary Indicators (Mar.) The paths of narrow money in the US and euro-zone diverged further over the past few weeks. The Fed maintained the pace of its assets purchases. But in the eurozone, commercial banks continued... 28th March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Don't underestimate Ukraine's exposure to Cyprus Most attention has focussed on the impact that the Cypriot bail-out could have on Russian depositors, but the deal may pose much bigger risks for Ukraine, which is already on the brink of a balance of... 28th March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Cyprus crisis could exacerbate slowdown in Russia The loss to Russian investors from the levy on Cypriot bank deposits remains uncertain, but a plausible estimate is somewhere around €5bn. This is fairly small in the grand scheme of things and the... 28th March 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb. 13) The latest euro-zone monetary data showed more mixed developments in financial markets than in previous months. And there is still limited evidence of a pick-up in credit to the private sector. 28th March 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Who will be the next Cyprus? Cyprus has shown that even the smallest members of the euro-zone can rock the single currency area. Slovenia is probably the next country most likely to be forced into a bailout programme, but Malta... 27th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update US net debt to foreigners still manageable Despite endless claims that the US is hopelessly indebted to foreigners, which will eventually lead to a collapse in the dollar and/or rampant inflation, its net external liabilities are actually... 26th March 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Too soon to forget about Cyprus The events in Cyprus provide another very visible – albeit extreme – illustration of the financial problems which are holding back the global recovery. Indeed, even though the Cypriot economy itself... 26th March 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Capital controls: vital stopgap or dangerous precedent? While capital controls could be crucial to preventing the collapse of the Cypriot banking system in the coming weeks, their persistence or more widespread use would threaten to undermine the basic... 26th March 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Positive wealth effects from equity gains still limited The latest Flow of Funds report, published today by the Bank of Japan, confirms that the surge in equity prices on the back of the “Abe trade” has boosted the value of household assets, but also that... 25th March 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Cyprus: Disaster averted, but with lasting effects While the Cypriot banking package has averted imminent disaster, the episode will have damaging effects on Cyprus’s economy and has raised new questions over the stability of the currency union. 25th March 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Limits to credit-driven growth come into focus Latin America’s recent lending boom continues to deflate, strengthening our belief that credit can’t be as big a driver of growth going forward as it has been in recent years. With household balance... 20th March 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What next for Cyprus? The Cypriot Parliament’s overwhelming rejection of the proposed levy on bank deposits adds to the uncertainty surrounding the future of Cyprus and increases the risk of the country eventually exiting... 20th March 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The view from the ground – Q1 2013 Confidence is rising, but business leaders in China are less upbeat about conditions for their own firms than they are about the wider economy. This suggests that sentiment may be running ahead of... 19th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.) The growth rates of broad money, including our own measure of M3, have slowed recently, even as the Fed has expanded its quantitative easing. We suspect this decline reflects a fall in the... 19th March 2013 · 1 min read
