Emerging Europe Economics Update Credit conditions still tight Our latest Banking Heat Map suggests that credit conditions in most countries in Emerging Europe remain extremely tight. The main exception is Turkey, where credit growth has accelerated again in... 28th June 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus A brief primer on China's interbank market China’s cash crunch has shone a spotlight on its interbank market, which investors without a close interest in China’s banking and financial sector previously paid little attention to. In this month’s... 27th June 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (May 13) May’s monetary data revealed that bank credit contracted again, reinforcing our belief that the ECB will be forced into further action by the end of the year. 27th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor QE tapering unlikely to trigger an EM crisis We do not expect the tapering and eventual ending of QE by the US Fed to be the trigger for a systemic Emerging Market (EM) crisis. Our Capital Economics Risk Indicator (CERI) suggests that financial... 26th June 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Can Slovenia avoid a bail-out? In spite of Slovenia’s low public debt and small banks, the country is in a very precarious position given the scale of the rot in the banking sector. To avoid a bail-out, the Government will need to... 26th June 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary conditions still very loose Government and corporate bond yields in most advanced economies increased sharply in the past few weeks in response to statements by the Fed which suggested that it will scale back its asset purchases... 25th June 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Reckless policymaking hints at appetite for reform There are some positives to be drawn from China’s cash crunch. The episode is arguably the strongest sign yet that the leadership is willing to suffer short-term economic pain if necessary to achieve... 24th June 2013 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update The view from the ground - Q2 2013 Businesses remain relatively confident about the economy overall but, when it comes to their own situation, they have recently turned much more downbeat. Meanwhile, Chinese households are as reluctant... 21st June 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) As the Fed prepares to taper its program of quantitative easing, there are some concerns in Asia that it could trigger a messy re-run of 1994. We think these concerns are exaggerated. 21st June 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Households' showing signs of borrowing fatigue Although our seasonally-adjusted measure of the household debt-to-income ratio nudged higher in the first quarter of this year, the trend appears to have stabilised. This suggests that there is even... 20th June 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Cash crunch signals policymakers’ credit concerns Short-lived cash crunches in China are not unusual. But the fact that the People’s Bank has allowed the current crunch to persist so long when economic growth remains weak signals the depth of its... 19th June 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: banking sector making progress but challenges remain Almost five years after a domestic banking crisis, there are encouraging signs that Nigeria’s financial sector is slowly returning to health. But while there are reasons to be optimistic, some key... 18th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) Broad money growth has remained stable since late last year, with our measure of the M3 aggregate expanding by 6.2% over the 12 months to May. 17th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Lower interest rates not a panacea to Russia’s problems There are signs that pressure from the Russian government on both the central bank and commercial banks to lower interest rates may be starting to have an impact on borrowing costs in the real economy... 13th June 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Rebound remains elusive The key message from China’s May data is that there is no clear evidence of an economic rebound getting underway. Most of the commentary has focused on the impact on exports of more stringent controls... 10th June 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Is the UK turning Japanese? The UK economy is at risk of following a path that is, if anything, worse than the ‘lost decades’ Japan experienced from the early 1990s. While the UK possesses some advantages Japan lacked, in some... 4th June 2013 · 1 min read
