China Data Response Lending & Outstanding Credit (Nov.) While bank lending was stronger than anticipated last month, overall credit growth continued to slow. The relative strength of loan demand may reflect the fact that rising market interest rates have... 11th December 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov.) Despite a sharp fall in the money multiplier, the growth rates of bank lending and broad money reached fresh highs in November. 11th December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus How might policymakers react when the EM credit bubble bursts? We have previously identified six emerging markets where credit growth appears to be unsustainable: Brazil, China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Thailand and Turkey. In the event of a crisis, past experience... 9th December 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Economic activity picks up further Judging by the latest business surveys, activity in advanced economies has strengthened further. The global manufacturing PMI is now consistent on past form with world GDP growth of as much as 4%... 6th December 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Weak growth & strong euro keep pressure on ECB Having slowed almost to a halt in Q3, early indications suggest that the euro-zone’s economic recovery is unlikely to have regained much momentum – if any – in the final quarter of the year. Meanwhile... 4th December 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Inflation easing despite stronger recovery CPI inflation fell sharply from 2.7% to 2.2% in October and it looks likely to fall below the 2% target soon. Past falls in global agricultural commodity prices suggest that food price inflation will... 4th December 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary expansion continues Our measure of the aggregate monetary base in advanced economies has expanded rapidly during the past few months as both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan have pressed on with their asset... 3rd December 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov.) The latest broad money supply figures support signs that the economic recovery has remained strong in the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, bank lending has begun to show some tentative signs of improvement... 29th November 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s credit binge will have painful consequences Credit in Brazil has expanded to such an extent over the past decade that it now poses a serious risk to financial stability. The tightening of monetary policy over the past six months should help to... 29th November 2013 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Oct.13) Net commercial property lending was negative again in October but, to us, the end of the deleveraging process now seems to be coming into sight. 29th November 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update A second bail-out still looms for Portugal Portugal is unlikely to follow in Ireland’s footsteps and achieve a “clean exit” from its existing rescue package. We think that the most likely scenario is that Portugal seeks a second full-blown... 28th November 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) There remains little sign that a pick-up in euro-zone bank lending to help support the fragile economic recovery is taking place. 28th November 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Risks from rapid Saudi credit growth look manageable The rapid expansion of credit in Saudi Arabia is beginning to look like a cause for concern. If sustained, it could be followed by a rise in non-performing loans. Nonetheless, the country seems well... 25th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM exporters benefit from Chinese rebound EM exporters appear to have benefited from the recent investment-led rebound in China. But with China's infrastructure spending now easing again and policymakers determined to rein in credit growth... 22nd November 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) The annual growth rate of our M3* measure of broad money remained at just under 6% in October. In contrast, the growth rates of the narrower M1 and M2 aggregates continue to trend lower. 19th November 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) While the money supply grew at the fastest pace since the late 1990s in October, bank lending has decelerated slightly. But record low interest rates and easy lending standards should provide further... 18th November 2013 · 1 min read
