Emerging Europe Economics Update Assessing the threat from Turkish corporate FX debt The recent sharp fall in the lira doesn’t appear to have led to significant FX debt servicing problems for Turkish companies. But given the rapid expansion of corporate FX debt over the past decade... 17th January 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Dutch banks still a weight on the recovery Although financial conditions in the Netherlands are set to improve in 2014, the country’s banking system will weigh on the recovery for a while yet. 16th January 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.) Despite a slowdown in December, the money supply continues to grow at a rapid pace. The growth rate of bank lending reached a fresh high and, with interest rates very low and bank lending attitudes... 16th January 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.) Broad money growth continues to slow but, given the rebound in long-term interest rates over the past six months, we suspect that moderation reflects a waning speculative demand for money and is not a... 15th January 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Lending, credit (Dec.) & FX reserves (Q4) December’s credit data are likely to set the tone for 2014: tighter monetary conditions are curbing credit growth. We expect this in turn to slow the growth of the economy. Meanwhile, the foreign... 15th January 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Deflationary pressures still building Recent euro-zone inflation data have provided firmer signs that CPI inflation will remain well below the ECB’s 2% stability ceiling for longer than the Bank itself expects. Admittedly, headline CPI... 8th January 2014 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q4 13) The tone of the latest Credit Conditions survey was positive, with the supply of and demand for credit rising in both the residential and commercial property sectors in Q4 last year. But lenders seem... 8th January 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q4 13) The tone of the latest Credit Conditions survey was positive, with the supply of and demand for credit rising in both the residential and commercial property sectors in Q4 last year. But lenders seem... 8th January 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Falling unemployment unlikely to prompt rate hike While unemployment is falling swiftly towards the 7% threshold above which the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has pledged to keep official interest rates on hold, it remains unlikely that rates will... 7th January 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Dec.) The latest PMI surveys signal that there was a broad slowdown in manufacturing activity at the end of 2013. Most notably, activity among large firms, a recent source of strength, has turned a corner... 2nd January 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The view from the ground – Q4 2013 Business sentiment about China’s broad economic outlook recovered this quarter but most firms remain downbeat about their own prospects. Bankers are relaxed about the current state of monetary policy... 19th December 2013 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Retail sales growth accelerating The recent pick-up in the growth rate of underlying retail sales suggests that we are finally seeing a strengthening in domestic demand. It may well be sustained too. Coming out of the recession, the... 17th December 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Iceland’s debt write-down plan will support the recovery Iceland’s controversial plan for more debt relief for indebted households is, despite some risks, a positive for the economy. But the scope for similar measures in the euro-zone’s periphery is limited... 17th December 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov.) Broad money growth continues to slow very gradually but, with the annual growth rate of our M3 measure still at a healthy 5.8% in November, there is no reason for concern, particularly not when... 16th December 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Banking Union progress offers little near-term relief Last week, euro-zone policy-makers moved closer to an agreement on the Single Resolution Mechanism responsible for handling failed banks. But while this is certainly a positive step, it will leave the... 16th December 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Slovenian stress tests boost efforts to avoid bail-out Slovenia’s new bank recapitalisation plans will help the country avoid a bail-out. But its stress test results might have worrying implications for the euro-zone’s own upcoming evaluation of banks. 12th December 2013 · 1 min read
