US Economics Weekly Recovery in small business lending to gather pace The main reason why the stock of loans to small businesses has yet to surpass its previous peak is because weak sales have restrained the demand for new borrowing. The recent rise in the NFIB small... 22nd August 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.) The recent rapid rise in bank loans, which is partly being driven by auto loans, is not a cause for concern and instead is a sign that the economy is becoming stronger. 20th August 2014 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Constraints on banks, not demand, behind loan slump A record RMB2.0trn fall in bank deposits in July, which put pressure on banks’ loan-to-deposit ratios (LDRs), appears to have been the main factor behind last month’s weakness in lending. LDRs are a... 19th August 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Cracks emerge in the “Africa Rising” story The long-run growth outlook for sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) remains good, but recent developments have caused cracks to emerge in the “Africa Rising” story. Budget and current account positions have... 15th August 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: Stimulus may backfire as bank deal falls through Negative comments from holdout creditors suggest that a solution to the Argentine debt dispute involving private banks has fallen through. That, along with interest rate cuts and monetisation of the... 14th August 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi consumer spending may be stabilising The latest data suggest that Saudi consumer spending remains weak by past standards, but it does at least look like the recent slowdown may now have bottomed out. 14th August 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update A softer start to Q3 Today’s data on lending, output and spending for July suggest that, after a strong Q2, China’s economy slowed at the start of Q3. Policymakers are likely to continue to provide targeted support to... 13th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Credit flowing more freely to small businesses Recent trends in the small business sector suggest that the labour market has continued to strengthenand that the loosening in credit conditions will allow businesses to boost investment. 12th August 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt's banks unlikely to support the economic recovery There are growing hopes that the recent return to political stability in Egypt will trigger a revival in bank lending to the private sector. But we think this optimism may be overdone. A heavy burden... 12th August 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.) Bank lending continues to expand at a robust pace, but weaker loan demand should eventually lead to a slowdown. 12th August 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Weaker Saudi credit growth could be here to stay The past few months have brought further evidence that credit growth is coming off the boil in parts of the Gulf. As we explain in this Watch, there are reasons to think that this could prove to be... 7th August 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Aug.) Headline inflation looks set to remain roughly stable in the near term. Although it is likely to rise again over the next few quarters on the back of rising pork prices and an increase in utility... 6th August 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Credit growth cools, but vulnerabilities persist The pace of private sector lending growth in most parts of Latin America has continued to cool this year, but the credit boom of the past decade means that vulnerabilities persist in a few places. At... 5th August 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Fall in Egypt’s PMI doesn’t signal end of recovery The fall in Egypt’s PMI in July was disappointing in light of the recent improvement in the hard activity data. However, the bigger picture is that the economy is stronger than it was a year ago... 5th August 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Is the level of borrowing costs in China a problem? Cuts to benchmark interest rates could end up doing more harm than good to China’s economy. Policymakers worried about elevated financing costs in the corporate sector would do better to focus on... 4th August 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Credit conditions easing, but still very tight The ECB’s latest Bank Lending Survey (BLS) added to the evidence that improving conditions in the euro-zone’s financial sector are finally feeding into the real economy. But it will be a while before... 4th August 2014 · 1 min read
