China Chart Pack Bank lending under pressure from new deposit rules New rules requiring banks to ensure that deposits at the end of each month deviate by no more than 3% from the monthly average are a new headwind for China’s economy. The rules are designed to prevent... 30th October 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary conditions set to remain loose The likely end of the Fed’s asset purchases under QE3 does little to change the bigger picture that global monetary conditions remain very loose. 29th October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Oct.) September’s household borrowing figures confirmed that new mortgage rules and cooling demand have continued to weigh on mortgage approvals. However, we doubt that this downward trend will persist for... 29th October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response ECB Bank Lending Survey (Oct.) The ECB’s October Bank Lending Survey (BLS) provided further evidence of a slow improvement in euro-zone credit conditions. But lending standards are still tight and the faltering economic recovery... 29th October 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Support from the Fed’s QE is not about to disappear The widely anticipated completion of the Fed’s purchases under QE3 need not mark the end of the policy’s support for global asset prices. As it happens, QE3 was not much of a boon to emerging markets... 28th October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Stress tests offer some relief, but not for Italy On the whole, the results of Europe’s bank stress tests were positive, implying that the heavy drag that falls in bank lending have exerted on the euro-zone economy may be set to ease. But poor... 27th October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Bank of England’s stress tests may prove tougher to pass While it is encouraging that all four of the major UK banks passed the European Banking Authority’s stress tests, the narrow margin by which some did so raises concerns that the Bank of England’s more... 27th October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.) September’s euro-zone monetary data showed further signs of improvement but with lending growth still negative and, given the need for some of the weakest banks to raise further capital, the sector is... 27th October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Stress tests to put spotlight on Italy and Greece The Comprehensive Assessment of the euro-zone’s banks published on Sunday should go some way towards restoring sentiment in the banking sector. After all, the adverse economic scenarios to which the... 24th October 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rates on hold in the Philippines, but further hikes likely The decision to leave interest rates in the Philippines on hold at 4.0% today reflects a recent easing of inflationary pressures. Nevertheless, with credit still growing at an unsustainable pace and... 23rd October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Stress tests won’t revive the banking sector overnight The euro-zone’s latest bank stress tests may be more credible than previous versions and hence do more to restore confidence in the region’s banking sector. But the corrective measures required in... 21st October 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators (Sep.) The tapering of the Fed's monthly asset purchases might finally be having a knock-on impact on the growth rates of the broader monetary aggregates. Our estimate of the broadest M3 measure shows that... 21st October 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Lending, credit (Sep.) & FX reserves (Q3) Credit growth slowed further last month, on the back of continued efforts by policymakers to address credit risks. Meanwhile, the fall in China's FX reserves reflects a stronger dollar, not FX sales... 16th October 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.) While bank lending continues to expand robustly, credit in aggregate is growing less rapidly. In fact, household debt reached a fresh low relative to output in Q2. 15th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian lending slows but no sign of credit crunch… yet Lending conditions in Russia have tightened in recent months, but there is no sign yet that Western sanctions have led to a sharp drop in bank lending to the wider economy or a credit crunch on the... 13th October 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Is weak credit demand undermining monetary policy? There has been some suggestion that policymakers are struggling to stimulate lending because firms have little appetite to borrow. Credit demand does appear to have softened. But there is no evidence... 9th October 2014 · 1 min read
