Asia Economics Focus The Asian consumer growth story is far from over Some of the world’s fastest growing consumer markets over the next couple of decades are likely to be in Emerging Asia. Prospect are best in China, India and the Philippines, where rapid income growth... 12th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Why a weaker ruble spells trouble for Russia’s banks There are relatively few parallels between the 1998 ruble crisis and the present crisis, but one point in common is that some of the greatest vulnerabilities to a weaker currency lie in the banking... 10th November 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation to remain low – but positive Inflation is at a four-year low and looks set to remain lower than we had previously anticipated. But we don’t think deflation is the threat that some believe or that policymakers should respond to... 7th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s central bank to be forced into further rate hikes The continued slide in the ruble is likely to force the Central Bank of Russia into making a one-off intervention in the currency market, permitted under its new exchange rate policy, rather more... 7th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Bank lending still a major drag on growth The latest data have shown tentative signs of improvement in the euro-zone banking sector, with the pace of contraction in lending slowing slightly in September (see Chart) and the Bank Lending Survey... 5th November 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Higher interest rates on the horizon in Kenya The Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 8.50% today, but we think that a pick-up in inflation and concerns about Kenya’s large current account deficit will prompt... 4th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Precautionary credit line may not be sufficient for Greece The Greek Government appears to have backtracked from plans of a “clean exit” from its EU bail-out programme in December, but it might still be over-estimating the extent to which it can finance... 4th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Gold referendum highlights limits of SNB policy Fears that a referendum over the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB’s) gold holdings might prevent the Bank defending its ceiling for the Swiss franc may be overblown. But the referendum highlights political... 4th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Banks still easing credit conditions despite end of QE3 The Fed's latest Senior Loan Officer Survey indicates that commercial banks are making it easier for households and smaller businesses to obtain credit, suggesting that the Fed's QE taper has had no... 3rd November 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update New leverage rules should not impede recovery in lending While the additional minimum capital buffers announced by the Financial Policy Committee (FPC) this afternoon will require some banks to raise more capital over the coming years, they do not appear to... 31st October 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Weighing up the FHFA’s mortgage proposals Proposals to lower the minimum down-payment on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac-backed mortgages at the same time as reducing banks’ exposure to put-back risk may help accelerate the modest loosening in... 31st October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Banking sector recovery still appears fragile Last week’s bank stress test results, September’s lending data and the ECB’s latest Bank Lending Survey all suggested that conditions in the euro-zone’s banking sector are, on the whole, improving... 31st October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Five challenges for Romania’s next president Victor Ponta looks set to win the presidential election in Romania on Sunday at a time when the economy is being buffeted by renewed weakness in key euro-zone trading partners. The economic outlook... 30th October 2014 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Recent market turmoil to have mixed impact on monetary policy The turbulence in financial markets in the middle of October won’t have a major impact on monetary policy in developed economies. We do not think it is a sign that the world is heading for another... 30th October 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Little reaction in the Gulf to fall in oil prices The slide in oil prices this month has raised concerns in some quarters that the Gulf States will need to tighten fiscal policy. But while the prospect of this has been talked about in Oman, lower oil... 30th October 2014 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Bank lending under pressure from new deposit rules New rules requiring banks to ensure that deposits at the end of each month deviate by no more than 3% from the monthly average are a new headwind for China’s economy. The rules are designed to prevent... 30th October 2014 · 1 min read
