UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Jan.) December’s household borrowing figures provided some tentative signs that we havenow reached a turning point in housing market activity. And, given the strongeconomic backdrop, household borrowing... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Dec.) Net lending to the commercial property sector contracted again in December. But the pace of the contraction appears to be easing, perhaps a sign that an end to the deleveraging process may now be in... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.) December’s euro-zone monetary data showed that credit conditions continued to improve at the end of last year. But the recovery is still at an early stage, highlighting the need for the ECB’s latest... 29th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How big a buffer do Russia’s FX reserves provide? We’re often asked about the extent to which Russia’s sizeable foreign exchange reserves provide a buffer against lower oil prices and capital flight and for how long they might last. There are lots of... 29th January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Rate cuts and ECB QE to keep conditions loose Any doubts about whether monetary conditions would remain ultra-loose this year have been put to rest by the ECB’s decision to launch “full-blown” QE and the wave of rate cuts implemented during the... 28th January 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Canadian dollar likely to tumble further Softening economic conditions and speculation about another interest rate cut from the Bank of Canada will keep downward pressure on the Canadian dollar. Allowing for a modest bounce back in the price... 27th January 2015 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Renminbi strength puts exporters under pressure China’s exporters continued to gain global market share last year but the recent sharp rise in the renminbi against other emerging market currencies is likely to put them under pressure in 2015. US... 27th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ruble crisis to force larger Russian bank recapitalisations The collapse in the ruble appears to have wiped out a large chunk of the Russian banking sector’s capital and we think the government will need to expand its current recapitalisation plans... 26th January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Euro-zone QE largely positive for UK Anything that kick-starts the UK’s biggest trading partner clearly has the potential to be good news this side of the Channel too. That said, the main channel through which we think QE will work in... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Dec.) December’s public finance figures showed that the pace of deficit reduction remains very slow given the economy’s recent strength and so cast doubt over whether the much bigger planned reductions in... 22nd January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Oiling the wheels Global growth has slowed in recent months, but we still expect world GDP to expand by just over 3% this year and next. The slump in oil prices should have a positive impact overall, even though it... 21st January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Crisis 2.0? The onset of deflation in the euro-zone and the recent developments in Greece have served as powerful reminders of the lasting effects of the region’s debt crisis. The ECB will seek to tackle... 20th January 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary indicators Monitor (Dec. 14) The growth rates of the various measures of broad money have remained robust even after the Fed halted its large-scale asset purchases late last year. For 2014 as a whole, M3*, our estimate of the... 20th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW & Euro-zone Bank Lending Survey (Jan.) January’s rise in ZEW investor sentiment showed that confidence in the German economy was holding up well despite fears for Greece. But investors may take a dimmer view following this week’s Greek... 20th January 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update No end in sight to build-up in China's credit risks Recent progress made towards curbing the rise of China's credit-to-GDP ratio is likely to slow going forward as it becomes more difficult to continue to rein in credit without undermining growth. 19th January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch How will deflation affect the outlook for monetary policy? Headline inflation is set to be well below zero for the bulk of this year in many advanced economies, including the US and the euro-zone, and we think it will probably dip below zero in the UK and... 15th January 2015 · 1 min read
