Asia Economics Update Credit growth needs to slow further We have been warning for some time that parts of Asia are experiencing an unsustainable credit binge, and that credit growth will need to slow for a crisis to be avoided. Encouragingly, credit growth... 12th March 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Feb.) Credit growth strengthened last month on the back of a more accommodative policy stance. That said, we still think that concerns over the build-up of credit risks mean policymakers will stop short of... 12th March 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria’s banks look increasingly fragile On the face of it, Nigeria’s banking system appears to be in good health following a round of recapitalisations in 2011, but its exposure to the oil sector and to naira depreciation mean that... 10th March 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will euro-zone sovereign credit spreads grind even lower? The yield spreads of 10-year Spanish and Italian government bonds over German Bunds recently fell below 100bp for the first time since 2010. Given their grind lower since the summer of 2012, it is... 9th March 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Why haven’t households spent their gasoline windfall? With the overall economy in good shape, it is only a matter of time before households start to spend more of the cash freed up by the plunge in gasoline prices. Indeed, in recent years households have... 6th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB’s hopes unlikely to be met President Draghi was sounding rather smug last week as he announced the start of the Bank’s quantitative easing programme and forecast that inflation would rise back to target in the medium term. But... 6th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Venezuela in crisis, but EM risks generally low Our updated Capital Economic Risk Indicator (CERI) reports that the overall level of emerging market (EM) risk remains at a decade low, but that concerns remain about a handful of countries. Venezuela... 5th March 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Consumers beginning to spend their oil windfall Household spending has picked up sharply in response to the collapse in oil prices. In January, the growth rate of underlying retail sales in advanced economies reached its highest level since 2006... 5th March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Misery index on track for 50-year low Households are considerably better off than they were just a year or two ago. Indeed, the so-called “misery index” – a sum of the prevailing inflation and unemployment rates – has halved over the last... 4th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Deflationary pressures remain intense Although headline consumer price inflation rose from -0.6% to -0.3% in February, this was driven entirely by a rise in energy prices as oil prices reversed some of their recent falls. Core inflation... 4th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Region’s banks in better shape to weather an external shock The provisional approval of the extension of the Greek bailout has calmed the markets, but the bigger picture is that the road ahead is still long and bumpy. This means that a Greek exit from the euro... 4th March 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Credit growth continues to cool, but concerns remain The slowdown in private sector lending growth across Latin America should help to ease concerns about the build-up of credit bubbles in the region. However, the accumulation of private sector debt... 3rd March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.) The latest money and credit figures indicated that the economic recovery is continuing to progress at a robust pace without leading to the rapid accumulation of debt. 2nd March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Report on Manuf. (Feb.) & Mortgage Approvals (Jan.) The latest manufacturing and lending figures brought further encouragement that the economic recovery is regaining pace after late 2014’s soft patch. 2nd March 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Rate cut alone won't boost lending The People's Bank has cut benchmark rates in order to help some indebted firms cope with the rise in real borrowing costs that has resulted from lower inflation. But the central bank still appears to... 2nd March 2015 · 1 min read
