Global Economics Update Monetary conditions still ultra-loose Global monetary conditions remain highly accommodative as the world’s major central banks have kept policy rates close to zero and some have continued with large scale asset purchases. Conditions in... 30th April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Is Ireland’s economic recovery a statistical illusion? The strength of Ireland’s recovery has been overstated due to a number of statistical distortions to GDP. But the economy does still seem to be on the mend. And the conditions are in place for Ireland... 30th April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.) March’s euro-zone monetary data suggest that economic growth might pick up in the coming months. But the continued wrangling over Greece’s fiscal situation presents a significant risk to the country’s... 29th April 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Increased financial inclusion will support growth in Africa New figures from the World Bank confirm that Sub-Saharan Africa’s nascent banking sector is developing along a trajectory not seen in other emerging markets. The rapid expansion of a more inclusive... 27th April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Russia’s economy slumps, growth weakens in Turkey The region’s two largest economies – Russia and Turkey – have continued to struggle over the past month. Russia’s economy appears to have contracted sharply by around 3% y/y in Q1. Meanwhile, we... 27th April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances & Retail Sales (Mar.) The last public finances figures before the general election brought some good news for the incumbent coalition. However, weak retail sales figures for March increase the chances that next Tuesday’s... 23rd April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Austria’s bank troubles will have euro-zone repercussions The ongoing uncertainty and legal suits over the wind-down of a small Austrian provincial bank might seem like the least of the euro-zone’s current concerns. But the wind-down of Hypo Alpe Adria’s bad... 22nd April 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Senior Loan Officer Survey (Q1) The BoJ’s Senior Loan Officer Survey points to a further slowdown in loan demand last quarter. But the survey has not been a reliable guide to the pace of credit growth recently. While we can’t rule... 21st April 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.) With broad money growth expanding at close to 6% over the past year and bank loans growing at an even faster 8%, there is little evidence of a sustained slowdown in real economic growth or price... 20th April 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Greek crisis still threatens global markets The latest acts in the Greek tragedy have begun to unsettle financial markets again, although we think there are potentially much bigger moves to come. Indeed, markets still appear to complacent both... 17th April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Will QE spur a revival in investment? The risks of a Greek default and possible euro-zone exit rose further last week as its creditors made clear that a bailout disbursement was unlikely in the near term. Despite this, ECB President Mario... 17th April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek crisis may finally be coming to a head The Greek crisis has reached a new crunch point amid signs that the Eurogroup will not grant desperately needed financial aid after next week’s meeting. Greece might resort to IOUs and/or capital... 16th April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Don’t underestimate the economy’s hidden slack Economists and policymakers are significantly overestimating the permanent damage inflicted to the economy from the financial crisis and recession. We still think that the economy has the potential to... 16th April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Lessons from history: is a debt problem brewing in EMs? We have been warning about the dangers stemming from rapid credit growth in several EMs for a while. In this Focus we revisit the possible lessons from history. Three points stand out – with... 15th April 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African banks’ rising external debt slips under radar The publication of South African Q4 balance of payments data last month grabbed the headlines because of the sharp reduction in the current account deficit, but the worrying rise in banks’ external... 14th April 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Lending, credit (Mar.) & FX reserves (Q1 Credit issuance was unusually weak in March but, with the late Chinese New Year break still casting a shadow, we wouldn’t read too much into this. Meanwhile, the fall in the value of foreign exchange... 14th April 2015 · 1 min read
