Europe Economics Update How vulnerable is the ECB to a Greek default? The ECB’s exposure to Greece is not huge and ultimately lies with the euro-zone governments that would have to recapitalise it. But a Greek default to the ECB would be a serious blow to the Bank’s... 28th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Is the worst really over for Russia? The slump in activity data for April put an end to hopes raised in some parts of the government (and markets) that the worst is over for the Russian economy. The steep falls in output are likely to be... 27th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Has the ECB saved the euro-zone again? After saving the day with its pledge to “do whatever it takes” in 2012, the ECB has arguably now brought on a recovery with its quantitative easing programme. But we expect the policy’s effects to... 27th May 2015 · 1 min read
RBA Watch RBA presses pause, not stop While the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is highly likely to leave interest rates on hold at 2.0% at its policy meeting on Tuesday 2 nd June, we think it will cut rates further later this year. Our... 26th May 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Household debt becoming a burden The all-clear siren sounded by the Fraser Institute last week on household debt is misleading. The debt service metric they use only captures the interest cost portion of debt, which completely misses... 25th May 2015 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Property to remain a drag despite stronger sales Growth in property sales returned to positive territory for the first time in over ayear last month, helped by lower mortgage rates and a loosening of purchasecontrols. But hopes that this marks the... 22nd May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (May) The minutes of May’s MPC meeting supported the message from last week’s Inflation Reportthat the most likely next move in interest rates will be up, but not for some time. Although two members still... 20th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine’s debt restructuring: what to make of the latest moves The latest developments regarding Ukraine’s debt restructuring, including a law passed by parliament today which allows the government to renege on payments if needed, are themselves of little... 19th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Should the ECB be happy with the first 10 weeks of QE? The ECB Governing Council has a right to be cautiously optimistic about the first ten weeks of QE. But we share its view that this does not mean that QE should end early. On the contrary, we think... 19th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Renewed recession adds to Greece’s woes The Greek crisis has intensified, with last week’s Eurogroup meeting offering little hope of near-term financial support and the Government resorting to reserves held at the IMF to make a loan... 15th May 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Deposit rate liberalisation still on track Stories that the PBOC banned banks from increasing deposit rates when it raised the deposit rate ceiling at the weekend are another sign of policymakers’ ambivalence towards the use of market-oriented... 15th May 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Rebound in bond yields unlikely to undermine global growth We can all be caught up in the mood of the moment, but talk of a “rout” in bond markets is, at best, premature. Yields are still remarkably low by past standards. While they may rise further, notably... 13th May 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Apr.) China’s credit growth slowed further in April. But with policy now easing, credit growth should stabilise in the months ahead, helping to relieve some of the downward pressure on the economy. 13th May 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Budget Preview: Disappointing as well as “dull” While Tuesday’s Federal Budget may well live up to the “dull” label slapped on it by the Prime Minister, the failure to provide any extra support to the economy will be disappointing. This would place... 7th May 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Consumers yet to spend their oil windfall... GDP growth was faster in the euro-zone than in the US in Q1, but we don’t expect this to be the start of a new trend. The single currency area has received a temporary boost from the fall in the euro... 7th May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Report on Manuf. (Apr.) & Money and Credit (Mar.) The combination of the deterioration of the Markit/CIPS report on manufacturing but improvement in the lending figures highlighted that the economic recovery has become increasingly dependent on... 1st May 2015 · 1 min read
