Precious Metals Update Gold price to benefit from further central bank buying We expect official purchases to be one of several factors that boost gold prices in the next year or two, despite the prospect of tighter US monetary policy and renewed strength in the dollar against... 8th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Prospects diverge Emerging Europe’s economy is likely to contract this year for the first time since 2009, but prospects differ substantially across the region. In Russia, while financial strains have eased, the... 5th June 2015 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Surge in German Bund yields unlikely to last Although the 10-year German Bund yield has risen significantly since late-April, we doubt it will continue to surge given the prospects for ECB policy and the probability of renewed safe-haven flows... 5th June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What would constitute a Greek default? At first sight, the concept of a sovereign default appears straightforward: a government either pays its debt, or it does not. But on closer inspection the picture is more blurred. For example, Greece... 5th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update New Greek debt plan does not reduce exit risks Greece’s new plan for “debt management and investment-led growth” is a much-needed attempt to look beyond the completion of the current bailout and find a more permanent resolution to the crisis. But... 5th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Outlook for periphery’s exporters is improving The depreciation of the euro over the past year or so appears to be finally starting to help euro-zone exporters. The latest data show that annual growth in euro-zone export values picked up to 7.3%... 3rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Draghi sends dovish message that ECB may extend QE ECB President Mario Draghi gave a dovish message today that the Governing Council remains cautious over the strength of the euro-zone economic recovery and intends to implement its quantitative easing... 3rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary conditions loose despite rise in yields Although both sovereign and corporate bond yields in advanced economies rose in early May, they remain low by past standards. And with most central banks likely to maintain ultra-loose policy this... 3rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Banking bailout funds no substitute for Greek debt relief The mooted reallocation of unused banking bailout funds could boost the amount of cash provided to Greece in a forthcoming deal with its creditors and hence buy it some valuable additional time. But... 3rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI & German Unemployment (May) May’s rise in euro-zone HICP inflation will offer some relief to the ECB, but with underlying price pressures still very weak and the recovery seemingly slowing, strong monetary policy support will be... 2nd June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Apr.) Growth in household borrowing is beginning to strengthen in response to record-low lending rates and high levels of confidence. And since this revival is coming from a low base and household incomes... 2nd June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek deal unlikely to tackle debt mountain Last night’s meeting between Greece’s creditors may have been an important step towards reaching a proposal to release the country’s final bailout payment. But the risk of failure is still high and... 2nd June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.) April’s euro-zone monetary data suggest that the region’s economic recovery will continue. But the continued lack of an agreement between Greece and its creditors poses a significant risk to the... 29th May 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Are policymakers pushing on a string? The failure of policy loosening over the past six months to stimulate an economic rebound has led some to suggest that elevated real interest rates or oppressive debt burdens are hobbling corporate... 29th May 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The markets don’t care whether Australia is AAA or AA It is possible that at some point in the next couple of years, Australia will lose its AAA credit rating. While this would be a huge blow for whichever political party is in power at the time, it... 29th May 2015 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB to keep foot hard on the QE pedal While no policy changes are in prospect at the ECB Governing Council meeting on 3rd June, markets will be watching closely for President Mario Draghi’s latest thoughts on the effectiveness of the Bank... 28th May 2015 · 1 min read
