Global Economics Update Reviewing the lessons from past devaluations Devaluations have generally had a more positive impact on growth in economies which have a lot of spare capacity, where monetary conditions have been excessively tight and where a debt write-off is... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Another scary peek at Greece’s debt dynamics A look at Greece’s debt outlook using plausible economic assumptions underlines the inevitability of a substantial form of default, inside or outside the euro-zone. 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Pension reforms giving small boost to spending The Chancellor’s announcement regarding the amount of money withdrawn from pensions since the new freedoms took effect in April supports our view that the changes will provide a boost, but a... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update SNB has more work to do in its fight against the franc The Swiss National Bank’s decision to leave its deposit rate at -0.75% presumably reflected the franc’s stabilisation at a slightly lower level. But we expect renewed upward pressure on the currency... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Debt swap helping to boost credit growth The local government debt swap is starting to have an impact on the flow of financing in China that has been widely overlooked and that should support the economy. Local governments have begun to... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is Cyprus a blueprint for Greece? Cyprus’ recent return to economic growth and its fairly swift liberalisation of capital controls might indicate that Greece could resolve its problems without leaving the euro-zone. However, there are... 16th June 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia’s credit slowdown has not eliminated risks Credit growth has continued to slow in the economies which we previously highlighted at greatest risk of a financial crisis. However, with credit still expanding at a faster pace than nominal GDP... 12th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Can time save Greece? Greece’s latest proposals to its creditors reportedly include plans to cover its financing needs until March next year. But with its economic and fiscal position more likely to worsen than improve in... 11th June 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (May) Headline credit growth continued to slow last month, but the latest figures are nonetheless consistent with a stepped up pace of policy support. 11th June 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Consumers stifled by banking sector and labour market woes Indian consumers have struggled in recent months despite the tailwinds of lower inflation and reductions in interest rates. This can be explained in part by continued problems in the labour market and... 10th June 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) The depreciation of the yen has increased the weight on bank balance sheets of lending abroad. With profitability similar, but default rates lower than on domestic loans, we think that overseas... 10th June 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What next for crisis-stricken Venezuela? With Venezuela’s economic crisis intensifying, attention is starting to focus on how the country might get out of this mess. Two options have been suggested in recent weeks – one is the establishment... 9th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update No California dreaming for Greece The repeated failure to agree on austerity measures together with threats of default and the prospect of IOUs have prompted comparisons between Greece’s situation and that in California in 2009. But... 9th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Ending Iceland’s capital controls not yet a done deal The Icelandic Government today presented its long-awaited plan to lift its capital controls after more than six years. While a detailed programme for their removal is a welcome step, the controversial... 8th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Debt relief is still the key obstacle to a Greek solution Greece and its creditors appear to be inching slowly towards each other on some elements of a potential deal to complete the current bailout. But deciding on and implementing the debt relief clearly... 8th June 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response World Gold Official Reserves (Apr.) Global central banks continued to buy gold for diversification purposes in April. Buying was mostly concentrated among emerging markets’ central banks, with Russia once again particularly active. 8th June 2015 · 1 min read
