Emerging Markets Economics Update Grexit, the euro-crisis and the risks for EMs Beyond a handful of economies in Emerging Europe, the direct links between Greece and the rest of the emerging world are limited. What matters for most EMs is not so much the crisis in Greece itself... 29th June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update The global fallout of “Grexit” (revisited) If, as seems increasingly likely, Greece defaults and exits the euro-zone within the coming months, the implications for the world economy should be fairly modest. Indeed, it could even turn out to be... 29th June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will markets remain this calm if and when Grexit occurs? Although some of the initial reaction in the markets to the decision by the Greek authorities to hold a referendum has been unwound, there is plenty of scope for renewed volatility in the event of a... 29th June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (May) May’s fairly weak household borrowing figures provided further reassurance that therecovery in household spending is not founded upon an unsustainable pick-up incredit growth and is another reason to... 29th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greferendum – key questions & answers The Greek Government’s decision to call a referendum has elevated the crisis to a higher level. Whilea deal may yet come together, a near-term Grexit now seems more likely than not. This... 29th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A primer on the implications of “Grexit” for Emerging Europe With Greece’s bailout talks postponed (again), the country’s membership of the euro-zone is lookingprecarious. In this Update, we provide a primer on what “Grexit” might mean for Emerging Europe. 26th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly The final countdown The failure of Greece and its creditors to reach a deal at last week’s many meetings has left very little time before the current bailout expires on Tuesday. Saturday’s Eurogroup meeting looks pretty... 26th June 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Capital injections too small to revive banking sector The government’s plans to inject more capital into local banks are a positive step, but they are too limited to revive the ailing sector. Larger capital injections are needed to strengthen banks’... 26th June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Markets Outlook Markets right to expect slow monetary tightening The prevailing view in the markets that the MPC can raise interest rates extremely gradually over the coming years seems right to us. Granted, wage growth has begun to pick up and the Fed looks set to... 25th June 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update A primer on how Saudi Arabia uses its FX reserves There seems to be a lot of confusion as to exactly how Saudi Arabia is using its foreign exchange reservesto finance twin budget and current account deficits. In this Update, we shed some light on the... 25th June 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Scrapping the loan-to-deposit ratio won’t boost bank lending A new proposal to do away with the loan-to-deposit ratio won’t relax the primary constraints on bank lending. It should, however, mean that a greater share of lending is directed towards smaller and... 24th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Without major debt relief, a Greek deal won’t end crisis While a deal between Greece and its creditors may finally emerge in the next few days, it still looks unlikely to include the substantial debt relief needed to end the crisis and eliminate the risk of... 24th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Grexit might be unavoidable, but it need not be a crisis In 2012, Capital Economics won the Wolfson Prize for our submission on how the exit from the eurozone of a small country like Greece might best be managed. Given the still significant risk that... 23rd June 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) The annual growth rates of broad money and bank loans slowed a little in May, but that is mainly due to base effects. Furthermore, our reconstructed measure of M3 still increased by a relatively... 23rd June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update UK faces bigger external threats than a China slowdown The UK has become significantly more exposed in recent years to the Chinese economy, which has made a poor start to 2015. But this shouldn’t cause the UK economy too many problems – Greece remains by... 23rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Capital controls likely, but they can’t prevent Grexit Accelerating deposit outflows from Greek banks and the ECB’s reluctance to fill the gap with further emergency loans have increased the likelihood that capital controls are imminent. We discuss the... 19th June 2015 · 1 min read
