Canada Economics Weekly Renovation tax credit would only worsen housing excesses The Conservative campaign pledge to introduce a new home renovation tax credit if elected this autumn is possibly more misguided than the NDP and Liberal pledges to raise taxes during a recession... 10th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Massive economic damage means Grexit still likely The scale of the damage done to the Greek economy by the country’s renewed crisis and imposition of capital controls looks set to be far worse than the provisional plans for a third bailout envisaged... 3rd August 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Conditions to stay loose despite looming Fed hikes Even though the US Fed is likely to begin raising interest rates in September, global monetary conditions are set to remain ultra-loose over the coming years as a number of other central banks ease... 31st July 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Looser credit conditions will support mortgage recovery Most evidence suggests that credit conditions are loosening, albeit very gradually. As it becomes clearer that the housing and wider economic recoveries are strong enough to cope with a gradual rise... 29th July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Jun.) June’s money and credit figures showed a further pick-up in lending to households and the housing market recovery regaining some momentum. But there is little to suggest that consumers are embarking... 29th July 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s credit bubble deflating, consumers feel the squeeze A combination of increases in policy interest rates and curbs on lending by some public banks is taking some of the air out of Brazil’s credit bubble. So far it seems that the bubble is deflating... 28th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.) June’s euro-zone monetary data point to a continued economic recovery, although they suggest that growth will not gather much more pace. 27th July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM rate cutting cycle nearing an end So far in July, more EM central banks have hiked interest rates than have cut rates – the first time this has happened since December last year. We expect to see further policy rate cuts in a few more... 22nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Oil price shock part II The latest renewed slump in world and domestic crude oil prices is another blow to the outlook for Canada's oil-dependent economy, which has already slipped into a mild recession. With the fallout... 20th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Growth to slow as temporary boosts fade The broader European economy has continued to weather the Greek crisis well, helped by lower oil prices and, in the euro-zone itself, the decline in the euro exchange rate. But these positive forces... 16th July 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Credit slowdown to weigh on Asian growth After a poor start to 2015, we expect growth in Emerging Asia to pick up in the second half of the year as the benefits of lower oil prices and loose monetary policy filter through to the domestic... 16th July 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Upbeat outlook for remittances The prospects of “Grexit” and interest rate hikes in the US have cast a spotlight on the potential for shifts in capital flows to destabilise emerging markets such as India. One factor that often gets... 16th July 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun 15) The growth rate of our broad M3 monetary aggregate slowed slightly to 5.0% y/y in June, reflecting the ongoing impact from the Fed's decision to taper its asset purchases last year. 14th July 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Lending, credit (Jun.) & FX reserves (Q2) Headline credit growth slowed again last month, but the data are nonetheless consistent with a stepped up pace of policy support. Meanwhile, the fall in the value of foreign exchange reserves hints at... 14th July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q2) The Credit Conditions Survey reported an uptick in secured residential credit availability in the second quarter, but that the availability of commercial lending was more-or-less unchanged. For the... 13th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek deal will only delay the inevitable Today’s tentative deal for a new Greek bailout clearly reduces the risk of a near-term exit from the single currency. But significant hurdles must be overcome before the deal is finalised. And the... 13th July 2015 · 1 min read
