China Economics Update Policy paralysis has dented near-term outlook China’s economy has stalled recently and headwinds are still intensifying on multiple fronts. The lack of a stronger stimulus response partly reflects a greater tolerance for economic weakness. But it... 17th August 2023 · 4 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (Aug. 2023) Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. India’s economy is showing signs of coming off the boil, and core inflation is moderating. However... 17th August 2023 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Current EM turmoil not a sign of widespread risks The crises unfolding in Argentina, Russia, as well as in China’s property sector, this week may rumble on for some time. And in the case of China’s property downturn, there are likely to be spillovers... 15th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (Aug. 2023) While economic activity was generally more resilient than feared in the first half of 2023, we expect global growth to disappoint in the coming quarters. We doubt that another bout of policy stimulus... 14th August 2023 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How many global risks lie in China's Country Garden The immediate global economic and market fallout from troubles at Chinese property developer Country Garden seems likely to be limited. Foreign exposure to China’s property sector has fallen sharply... 14th August 2023 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jul.) China’s bank loan growth fell to its lowest in seven months in July, while broad credit growth dropped to a record low. We expect further policy rate cuts and a spike in government bond issuance in... 11th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Financial conditions still flagging recession risk Even though the financial strains that emerged after SVB’s collapse have dissipated, interest rate hikes have left overall financial conditions in major advanced economies close to their tightest... 9th August 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily A brighter future for banks may require one for the economy The share prices of US banks have recovered some ground since a low point in May, as concerns about further failures in the industry have abated; Treasury yields have rebounded; and the economy has... 8th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Record SAIBOR, Egypt FX crunch, Saudi extends oil cut The Saudi Arabian interbank rate hit its highest level in over two decades and, with credit growth in the Kingdom slowing, pressure is likely to mount on the Saudi Central Bank to intervene and inject... 3rd August 2023 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update UAE: a soft 2023, but set to be GCC top performer in 2024 We have collated a range of low-profile activity data for the UAE that point to strong activity in the non-oil economy. But this won’t be enough to offset the impact of oil production cuts. Prospects... 3rd August 2023 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Credit conditions remain tight The Fed’s latest Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey shows that, even though the banking crisis has faded, credit conditions remain unusually tight. Although the net percentage of banks tightening... 31st July 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Credit (Jun. 2023) Higher interest rates continued to gradually feed through to weaker activity in bank lending in June, particularly in the housing market. We suspect this effect will intensify as the Bank of England... 31st July 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Money and lending data point to recession Data released this week show that tighter monetary policy has led to a sharp slowdown in money and lending growth, consistent on past form with falling GDP. Together with the latest business surveys... 26th July 2023 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (Jul. 2023) Our India Chart Pack has been updated to reflect the most recent data and developments as well as our latest analysis. Our View: India’s economy is showing signs of coming off the boil and, with... 19th July 2023 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Credit Conditions Survey (Q2 2023) The narrowing in interest margins reported by mortgage lenders in the Credit Conditions Survey suggests that mortgage rates won’t fall significantly anytime soon. Meanwhile, it became more difficult... 13th July 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Banks rein in supply of credit, weaker demand will be next Rising interest rates have led lenders to rein in the supply of credit to households in Q2, but they haven’t yet curtailed demand. That said, the latest credit conditions survey doesn’t capture the... 13th July 2023 · 4 mins read
