US Economics Update Fed’s QT plans may not survive rate cuts next year The ongoing outflow of funds from the Fed’s reverse repo facility has completely offset the downward pressure on bank reserves from quantitative tightening (QT), suggesting that the Fed could continue... 18th October 2023 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. India’s economy appears still to be holding up well in the second half of the year. And although... 18th October 2023 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi set for weakest GDP growth in the Gulf this year Saudi Arabia’s economy is in a recession and, with oil output cuts extended until the end of this year at least, GDP will contract further. We think that the economy will shrink by 1.3% this year... 16th October 2023 · 4 mins read
China Rapid Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Sep.) After slowing sharply in Q2, broad credit growth edged up in August and held steady last month. Although a sharp rebound seems unlikely, we do think credit growth could pick up somewhat over the... 13th October 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update BoE Credit Conditions Survey (Q3 2023) - Demand and supply of credit contracts Surging interest rates caused mortgage demand to slump in Q3 at the same time as rising defaults led lenders to tighten mortgage credit conditions. Similarly, it became more difficult to secure... 12th October 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Households avoid mortgages as higher rates bite harder Higher interest rates weighed sharply on households’ demand for mortgages in Q3 and banks expect demand for mortgages to fall further in Q4. This is a clear sign that higher interest rates are working... 12th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Digital euro still a distant prospect There may be more political support for the creation of a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) in the European Union than in some other economies. However, it is still uncertain whether it will ever... 11th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Update How a surge in bond yields could yet wreak havoc We expect any rise in bond yields to be gradual and don’t believe it will create major economic or market dislocation. But there are risks that the Bank of Japan loses control over longer-term yields... 5th October 2023 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Credit (Aug. 2023) The drag from higher interest rates on bank lending grew further in August, particularly in the housing market. Although interest rates have probably peaked at 5.25%, this effect will intensify as the... 29th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack (Sep. 23) After a sharp slowdown this year, GDP growth across the Middle East and North Africa will improve in 2024 as OPEC+ starts to raise its output quotas and high oil prices allow the Gulf economies to... 28th September 2023 · 1 min read
China Economic Outlook Stimulus to deliver partial recovery China’s economy is regaining some momentum after stalling for a brief period during the summer. A step up in policy support looks set to deliver a modest cyclical recovery but trend growth remains... 27th September 2023 · 17 mins read
Europe Economics Update Lending data point to recession The latest euro-zone money and credit data show that tighter ECB policy is continuing to weigh on households’ and firms’ borrowing, as well as influencing what they do with their savings. The weakness... 27th September 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Slower money growth shows higher rates are working The sharp slowdown in broad money growth since late last year suggests that higher interest rates are working by reducing households’ and firms’ demand for borrowing, which should lead to softer... 26th September 2023 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Growth prospects for 2024 improving After a sharp slowdown this year, GDP growth across the Middle East and North Africa will improve in 2024 as OPEC+ starts to raise its output quotas and high oil prices allow the Gulf economies to... 25th September 2023 · 20 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Interest rate hold won’t provide immediate relief Despite ending the interest rate hiking cycle today, the Monetary Policy Committee succeeded in convincing financial markets that interest rates will remain high for some time. As market interest rate... 21st September 2023 · 3 mins read
