Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Egypt’s economic struggles look set to persist

In the past few years, Egypt’s economy has been hit by the successive impacts of the pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and, more recently, currency devaluations. With further currency falls on the cards...

3rd January 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor

Financial risks easing, but still areas for concern

The more supportive global risk environment is helping to ease some financial strains across the EM world, but there are still pockets of vulnerability heading into 2024. Balance of payments positions...

19th December 2023 · 5 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

Ethiopia default, SA activity, Ghana inflation fall

Ethiopia’s sovereign default appears imminent after the government missed a coupon payment on its 2024 Eurobond this week. The prominence of Chinese and private bondholders in Africa continues to...

15th December 2023 · 5 mins read

Global Economics Chart Pack

Global Economics Chart Pack (Dec. 2023)

Our Global Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. We think that global growth will undershoot consensus expectations in 2024 as the lagged...

15th December 2023 · 1 min read

Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook

Another year of sluggish growth

Economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa will strengthen a little in 2024 but is likely to come in well below consensus expectations. OPEC+’s cautious approach to oil policy will keep a lid...

13th December 2023 · 22 mins read

China Rapid Response

Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Nov.)

Broad credit growth continued to rise in November thanks to a pick-up in government bond issuance, but it still came in below expectations. We think further policy support is on the way, but this is...

13th December 2023 · 3 mins read

UK Housing Market Update

Rising arrears not translating into forced sales

The detailed mortgage lending data for Q3 show that the high cost of borrowing has continued to price many out of the market and made new BTL investment unattractive. But while arrears are rising...

13th December 2023 · 3 mins read

China Economic Outlook

Stronger start, weaker end to 2024

China’s economy has regained some strength recently. We expect this to continue into 2024, on the back of support from fiscal policy and a further pick-up in household spending. But with property...

6th December 2023 · 18 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

S. Africa financial stability risks, Kenya’s housing levy

The South African Reserve Bank’s Financial Stability Review out this week shone the spotlight on the risks posed by local banks’ growing holdings of government debt – risks that are only likely to...

1st December 2023 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Egypt: currency, sovereign, banking risks intertwine

The falls in the Egyptian pound over the past year have increased the size of commercial banks’ net FX assets, but what has flown under the radar is banks’ growing exposure to the government’s FX debt...

29th November 2023 · 5 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Money & Credit (Oct. 2023)

October’s money and credit data suggest that higher interest rates are continuing to percolate through the economy. As a result, the drag on real consumer spending and business investment will soon...

29th November 2023 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Nov. 2023)

Our Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments After a sharp slowdown this year, GDP growth across the Middle East and North...

28th November 2023 · 1 min read

India Chart Pack

India Chart Pack (Nov. 2023)

Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. India’s economy continues to show resilience this year and annual GDP growth is likely to come in...

23rd November 2023 · 1 min read

US Economics Weekly

Post SVB bank lending holding up well

The SVB crisis back in mid-March sparked fears of a credit crunch, particularly among regional banks who are the principal source of funding for commercial real estate. Post-SVB, while the Fed’s...

22nd November 2023 · 6 mins read

India Economics Weekly

Trade deficit balloons, RBI cracks the whip

The goods trade deficit soared to a record high in October and, though it is likely to moderate over the coming months, the overall current account deficit will probably come in a bit wider than we...

17th November 2023 · 3 mins read