Emerging Europe Chart Pack Vaccine offers hope, but challenges still lie ahead Daily new COVID-19 infections have levelled off or fallen in most parts of Central Europe and there are signs that activity has started to rebound. But the fresh rise in new cases this month in... 17th December 2020 · 16 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Go To Travel suspension will weigh on consumption PM Suga’s decision on Tuesday to halt the Go To Travel campaign for two weeks from 28th December may put the recovery in services spending into temporary reverse. It comes after authorities in Tokyo... 17th December 2020 · 10 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Nov.) The fall in the unemployment rate to 6.8% in November leaves it on track to fall to 6% by the middle of next year and is consistent with our view that the RBA won’t expand quantitative easing any... 17th December 2020 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack Vaccines too late to prevent bleak winter There is now clear evidence that the continued surge in COVID-19 infections and restrictions imposed to control its spread are once again weighing on the economy, with employment growth slowing... 16th December 2020 · 9 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Our key calls for 2021 We think that the recovery from the pandemic will be stronger than most anticipate. That means that the labour market will tighten rapidly, allowing central banks to end their bond purchases. The... 16th December 2020 · 4 mins read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Oct./Nov.) The smaller-than-expected fall in employment in October shows that the government’s furlough scheme has minimised the labour market damage from COVID-19 so far and provides encouragement that there... 15th December 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Oct./Nov.) The smaller-than-expected fall in employment in October shows that the government’s furlough scheme has minimised the labour market damage from COVID-19 so far and provides encouragement that there... 15th December 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Activity & Spending (Nov.) China’s economy continued to accelerate across all fronts in November. We expect output to remain above-trend in the coming quarters, even as tailwinds from stimulus and exports start to ease. 15th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Bank of Japan Tankan (Q4 2020) The sharp rebound in the Q4 Tankan supports our view that the economy will rebound relatively swiftly from the dislocation caused by the pandemic. And while firms’ capital spending plans point to... 14th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack SNB not out of the woods yet As well as being a game-changer for economic prospects next year, the positive news on the vaccine front has also helped to ease the upward pressure on the Swiss franc against the euro. The franc... 11th December 2020 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Risk of a "cooperative" no deal Brexit rises The next Brexit decision “deadline” on Sunday 13 th December, may or may not be the turning point that results in the UK and EU hurtling either towards a deal or a no deal. But with the Brexit... 11th December 2020 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Virus restrictions continue, ECB provides more support The extension of virus restrictions in France and calls for tougher measures in Germany this week strengthen our view that euro-zone economic activity will still be substantially curtailed in early... 11th December 2020 · 8 mins read
Japan Data Response Wages, HH Spending (Oct.) & GDP (Rev. Q3 2020) The sizeable upward revision to Q3 GDP and the sharp rise in “core” household spending in October support our view that Japan’s economy will recover from the pandemic faster than the consensus expects... 8th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Vaccines to prompt rapid growth in 2021 and 2022 Euro-zone GDP looks set to fall in Q4, but the prospect of vaccine rollouts has significantly improved the outlook. We think that containment measures will be scaled back when the most vulnerable... 4th December 2020 · 12 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Nov.) The slowdown in the pace of non-farm payroll gains to 245,000 in November underlines how the renewed surge in virus cases and restrictions is weighing on services demand, which will only intensify... 4th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Nov.) & Internat’nl Trade (Oct.) Employment outperformed expectations last month, but the additional coronavirus restrictions imposed since the November LFS survey was carried out lead us to think it will fall back in December. 4th December 2020 · 2 mins read
