Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (May) The surge in employment in May demonstrates that the labour market is continuing its extraordinary rebound which supports our call for the RBA to move to a flexible asset purchase programme in July. 17th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Labour shortages little threat to German wage restraint There is less spare capacity in Germany’s labour market than elsewhere in the euro-zone, and economic activity is set to regain its pre-crisis level before long. However, we think wage inflation... 16th June 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Hourly Labour Costs (Q1) Average hourly labour cost growth slowed in Q1, and we expect wage growth to remain subdued over the coming years. This will keep underlying inflationary pressures down. 16th June 2021 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Activity & Spending (May) Headline growth on all the key indicators dropped back last month. But after adjusting for base effects the picture was more mixed, with investment slowing, industrial output growth holding steady and... 16th June 2021 · 4 mins read
Long Run Focus Global migration to bounce back Global migration has ground to a halt over the past year or so, but we doubt that the pandemic will have any major lasting impact. Moreover, there is potential for migration to get a fresh impetus... 15th June 2021 · 21 mins read
UK Economics Labour Market (Apr./May) Another strong set of labour market figures released this morning will feed concerns about labour shortages and the possible impact on inflation of higher wage growth. But the level of employment is... 15th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Hawkish RBNZ will hike even earlier The RBNZ’s hawkish rate outlook has prompted us to bring forward our forecast for the first RBNZ rate hike from November to May next year. But in contrast to the RBNZ, we don’t think the pandemic will... 14th June 2021 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan: severe capacity constraints but few inflation fears Taiwan’s economy is struggling with severe capacity constraints but there are few signs in recent data that this is fuelling broad-based wage or price pressure. That’s a stark contrast with the US... 10th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Labour market recovery won’t spark wage spiral We estimate that the spare capacity in the euro-zone’s labour market has increased by around four million people, or 2.5% of the labour force, since the start of the pandemic. This is likely to... 9th June 2021 · 20 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Wages (Apr.) & GDP (Revised Q1 2021) While the marked acceleration in wage growth in April was largely down to favourable base effects, we think wage growth will remain strong throughout this year as the labour market tightens and... 8th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (May) The continued coronavirus restrictions caused employment to fall for the second month running in May but, with re-opening now underway across the country, employment should rise strongly in the coming... 4th June 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (May) The 559,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in May was at least an improvement on the 278,000 gain in April but, with the level of employment still 7.6 million below its pre-pandemic peak, it would take... 4th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone wage pressures will prove limited There are some signs of labour shortages developing in parts of the euro-zone, notably in hospitality. But they are likely to be short-lived and will not put sustained upward pressure on wages. And... 3rd June 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (May) The PMIs are consistent with the euro-zone’s economic recovery gathering pace in May. Price pressures in the manufacturing sector are intensifying, but we still think that higher inflation will be... 3rd June 2021 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response US Metro Employment (Apr.) Employment growth in the three-months to April was positive in all 30 of the largest metros. However, the rate of growth remains slow as labour shortages weigh on the jobs recovery. As a result, total... 2nd June 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (May) & Unemployment (Apr.) The jump in euro-zone inflation to 2.0% in May will not be the end of the upward trend, but we expect inflation to drop back sharply next year as temporary factors are reversed. 1st June 2021 · 2 mins read
