US Employment Report Preview Labour market treading water We estimate that non-farm payroll employment was broadly unchanged in January, but the recent fiscal support and drop-back in new virus cases suggest the labour market recovery will resume soon. 28th January 2021 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook At the front of the pack Having experienced some of the smallest falls in output in Europe in 2020, GDP in Switzerland and the Nordics is likely to rise back to pre-virus levels in H2 2021 – about a year ahead of the euro... 27th January 2021 · 13 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Vaccinations lag the US Canada will receive only enough doses of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines to provide the equivalent of one dose to 16% of the population by the end of the first quarter. By contrast, even in the... 26th January 2021 · 9 mins read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Nov./Dec.) The rise in the unemployment rate in November is another step up on the climb towards the 6.5% peak we expect by the end of the year. But with the rollout of vaccines going well, the jobless rate may... 26th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus RBNZ to hike rates next year We now expect the RBNZ to tighten monetary policy in the years ahead as GDP growth, the labour market and inflation will be much stronger than the Bank has anticipated. We expect asset purchases to be... 26th January 2021 · 18 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Labour market scarring may prompt extension of QE Our base case remains that the RBA will end quantitative easing in April. However, one risk to that forecast is the rising share of long-term unemployment. 25th January 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Two risks to our recovery hopes Rumours of tax rises in the Budget in March and speculation that the population has shrunk sharply both threaten our view that the economy will eventually enjoy a quick and complete recovery from the... 22nd January 2021 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Voluntary measures may not bear enough fruit The light-touch state of emergency appears to have had some success in stemming the surge in cases in the Greater Tokyo area. But with many hospitals reportedly close to full capacity, the government... 22nd January 2021 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Labour market to keep surprising to the upside Australia’s unemployment rate has fallen much faster than most had anticipated. And with the share of underemployed workers nearly back at pre-virus levels, the risk of widespread job losses after the... 22nd January 2021 · 5 mins read
China Economic Outlook A year of two halves China’s economy will continue to beat most expectations in the near term, as households spend more freely. But momentum will soften during the second half of the year as props from stimulus and... 21st January 2021 · 22 mins read
India Chart Pack The benefits and costs of tighter NBFC regulation The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is set to tighten regulation of non-bank financial companies (NBFCs) over the coming weeks. Alongside stricter audits of many smaller lenders, the RBI is likely to... 21st January 2021 · 9 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Labour Market (Dec.) The further decline in the unemployment rate in December is consistent with our view that the RBA will not extend its asset purchases beyond April. 21st January 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Falling virus cases an upside risk this quarter Our forecast for a 1.5% q/q fall in consumption in Q1 rests on the assumption that some businesses in virus hotspots will be forced to close in order to contain Japan’s most severe wave of the... 20th January 2021 · 10 mins read
US Economic Outlook Vaccines and stimulus to boost recovery With additional large-scale fiscal stimulus likely to offset the near-term drag on activity stemming from the surge in COVID-19 cases – and the vaccination effort likely to reach critical mass by mid... 19th January 2021 · 24 mins read
UK Economic Outlook A faster and fuller recovery within sight Our view that the economy will return to its pre-pandemic size in Q1 2022 and that it won’t be permanently smaller due to the pandemic is a more optimistic take than that of most forecasters. It... 19th January 2021 · 26 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Surge in growth will allow central banks to step back The recovery in GDP and employment in both Australia and New Zealand is set to continue surprising to the upside. As such, we expect the RBA to stop its QE programme in April. Meanwhile, we estimate... 18th January 2021 · 24 mins read
