Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Booming housing & labour markets The RBA and APRA seem to be washing their hands of responsibility for skyrocketing house prices. But we think the likely surge in credit growth in the months ahead means that APRA will be forced to... 1st April 2021 · 4 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Labour Market & Retail Sales (Feb. 2021) The strong rise in retail sales in February to their highest level since September 2019 supports our view that the economy just about avoided a contraction in Q1. And while the unemployment rate was... 30th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Central Bank Watch Central bank mission creep There have been several cases of central bank mission creep in recent months, with policy remits widening to cover areas other than consumer price inflation. The Bank of England is now helping to... 29th March 2021 · 15 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Easing restrictions to drive acceleration in jobs growth We expect the labour market recovery to have kicked into a higher gear in March, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 700,000. 25th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Long Run Update Will demographic changes boost inflationary pressures? The rapid growth of the global labour supply in the past few decades looks set to give way to a period of much weaker growth. Some argue that this will reverse the decline in inflation seen in recent... 24th March 2021 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update Deferring retirement would barely lift employment China’s statutory retirement ages are low. Raising them, as the Five-Year Plan proposes, would make the pension system more affordable but it wouldn’t make an appreciable difference to the ongoing... 23rd March 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Strong labour market doesn’t mean RBA will tighten The stronger than expected labour market data will have been a nice surprise to the RBA with the unemployment rate now below its year-end forecast. But we had always expected the unemployment rate to... 19th March 2021 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Feb.) The surge in employment in February is consistent with our view that the Australian labour market is tightening much faster than most expect. 18th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Feb.) The strong rebound in employment in February almost fully made up for the losses in December and January. While the pace of gains is now likely to slow, employment should continue to rise as the... 12th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Lowe lifts bar for policy tightening further Today’s dovish speech by RBA Governor Lowe supports our view that the RBA is set to keep monetary policy accommodative for a long time to come. But concerns about the functioning of the bond market... 10th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Wages, HH Spending (Jan.) & GDP (Rev. Q4 2020) While the downward revision to Q4 GDP and the sharp fall in “core” household spending in January suggest that the economy faired a little worse than initially reported over the winter, we continue to... 9th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Economy Watchers Survey (Feb. 2021) The sharp rebound in the Economy Watchers Survey in February suggests economic activity is ending the quarter with some momentum. That supports our non-consensus view that the state of emergency won’t... 8th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Labour Market (Jan. 2021) & Capex (Q4 2020) The unemployment rate fell in January despite the state of emergency, and it should fall further over the course of this year as employment rebounds in line with the economic recovery. Meanwhile... 2nd March 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Wage growth near its trough Labour markets in both countries have tightened in recent months. In Australia, the unemployment rate has fallen from a peak of 7.1% to just 6.4% in January. And other measures of spare capacity have... 1st March 2021 · 11 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Recovery back on track With virus cases falling and containment measures being eased, we expect the partial reopening of the leisure and hospitality sector to translate into a 500,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in... 25th February 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Soaring earnings growth not as good as it looks The surge in average earnings growth to a ten-year high is not what it seems as it’s partly due to large numbers of lower-paid workers losing their jobs. As such, the upward pressure on inflation from... 25th February 2021 · 3 mins read
