Europe Economics Strong recovery to continue in Q3 The surge in spending as coronavirus restrictions have been lifted will bring the euro-zone economy close to its pre-pandemic level in the coming months. After expanding by 2% q/q in Q2, we expect a... 4th August 2021 · 12 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand- Labour Market (Q2 2021) The decline in the unemployment rate to 4.0% all but confirms our forecast that the RBNZ will hike rates at its August meeting. 4th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Bank will take comfort in latest inflation data Although inflation remained above the Bank of Canada’s 1% to 3% target range in June, the details of the release seem to support the Bank’s view that the high rate of inflation is due to transitory... 30th July 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Euro-zone GDP and Employment (Q2) After increasing more than expected in Q2, thanks to strong growth in the southern economies, euro-zone GDP should expand rapidly again in Q3 as core economies close in on their pandemic levels. China... 30th July 2021 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack Investors refocus on long-term concerns Questions about the strength of China’s post-lockdown rebound have become louder since the People’s Bank cut the required reserve ratio three weeks ago. But the trigger for this week’s sharp equity... 30th July 2021 · 13 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Market, Ind. Production & Retail Sales (Jun. 21) Retail sales, industrial production and employment all rebounded strongly in June, pointing to a sizeable recovery in activity in between the Alpha- and Delta-driven coronavirus waves. That supports... 30th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Re-opening should more than offset wildfire disruption The wildfires in British Columbia appear to have been more disruptive than we first thought, but GDP should still rise this month thanks to the easing of the coronavirus restrictions. The volume of... 29th July 2021 · 9 mins read
US Economics Payroll growth to remain elevated With labour supply continuing to lag the recovery in demand, we estimate that growth in non-farm payrolls slowed to 650,000 in July. 29th July 2021 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response US Metro Employment (Jun.) Employment growth accelerated in June, helping office-based employment return to pre-pandemic levels in almost a third of metros. But the 3m/3m growth rate in total employment was highest in the... 28th July 2021 · 2 mins read
China Economics Coming down to earth China’s economy has been defying gravity thanks to elevated global demand but this support may now be fading. Meanwhile, last year’s policy easing has been fully reversed. An abrupt slowdown is not... 23rd July 2021 · 22 mins read
China Activity Monitor Downhill from here? Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth accelerated in q/q terms last quarter but that output edged down in June on the back of softer industrial and construction activity. We think China... 22nd July 2021 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Post-pandemic recovery phase drawing to a close As elsewhere in mainland Europe, activity in Switzerland and the Nordic economies rebounded in Q2 as services sectors re-opened and the strength of global trade has buoyed exports. Our GDP forecasts... 22nd July 2021 · 13 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Vaccines should limit Delta damage While infections are now rising sharply nationwide – particularly in Tokyo where the Delta variant has the strongest hold – most of the vulnerable population are now fully vaccinated so we doubt... 22nd July 2021 · 10 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics A two-speed recovery Strong COVID-19 vaccine rollouts in most of the Gulf and Morocco mean that remaining virus restrictions should be lifted by the end of this year, providing a boost to recoveries that, in the Gulf... 21st July 2021 · 25 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Strong recovery, but inflation a lasting concern Rapid recoveries are underway across the region and GDP should return close to its pre-pandemic path sooner than in most other EM regions. While the spread of highly transmissible virus strains poses... 21st July 2021 · 28 mins read
India Chart Pack Inflation has now peaked Amid the ongoing debate over inflation in a post-pandemic world, one thing that does appear clear is that near-term price pressures in India have peaked. Consumer price inflation held steady in June... 21st July 2021 · 9 mins read
