US Economics Update Delta contributing to worsening labour shortages The continued surge in job openings and elevated quits rate in July suggest that labour shortages are still intensifying, which will put further upward pressure on wages. (See Chart 1.) There is... 8th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone driver shortages less acute than in the UK The shortage of heavy goods vehicle (HGV) drivers in the euro-zone appears to be nowhere near as acute as in the UK. We therefore don’t expect to see a surge in drivers’ wages that would lead to... 7th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q2) With revised data showing that the euro-zone economy performed even better than previously thought in Q2, the ECB is sure to revise up its GDP forecasts on Thursday. That said, even if it reduces the... 7th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Wages & Household Spending (Jul. 2021) Wage growth recovered in July and it should strengthen further over the coming months as the labour market tightens and vaccines fuel a further recovery in overtime pay. Meanwhile, the drop in... 7th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Rise in inflation is not over Headline inflation came in higher than our above-consensus forecast in August and, at 3.0%, reached its highest level for a decade. It is likely to rise a bit further in the coming months: producer... 6th September 2021 · 11 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Aug.) The well-below consensus 235,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in August suggests that the Delta variant is beginning to weigh on the economy, with leisure & hospitality employment unchanged on the month... 3rd September 2021 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response US Metro Employment (Jul.) Job growth showed no sign of slowing in July, with gains in the leisure & hospitality sector continuing to drive the recovery. This benefitted Boston, Washington D.C. and New York City significantly... 1st September 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Unemployment (Jul.) & Final Mfg PMIs (Aug.) The fall in euro-zone unemployment in July appears to be down to a decline in the overall labour force rather than an increase in employment, highlighting that the labour market recovery still has a... 1st September 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Getting a handle on euro-zone wage data Euro-zone wage data are published only quarterly, and with a long lag, and have been distorted by pandemic-related effects. So it will be another six months before we get a clearer idea of the... 31st August 2021 · 14 mins read
China Chart Pack Party soon to target property and healthcare costs A WeChat post by a prominent blogger voicing support for Xi Jinping’s “common prosperity” campaign has been widely re-published by state media, giving it a rare seal of Party approval. The post argues... 31st August 2021 · 13 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Market & Industrial Production (Jul. 2021) While the Delta wave may reverse some of July’s jump in employment, we think vaccines will allow employment to surpass its pre-virus level by the end of this year. Meanwhile, the fall in industrial... 31st August 2021 · 3 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Continued strong payroll gains in August We expect a 750,000 gain in payrolls in August which, although slightly weaker than the gains seen in June and July, would be enough to push the unemployment rate down to 5.1% and would probably count... 26th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Delta not clipping the wings of RBNZ hawks yet New Zealand has entered a draconian lockdown and new infections continue to rise. The lockdown prompted the RBNZ to refrain from hiking interest rates at its August meeting and financial markets were... 26th August 2021 · 11 mins read
India Chart Pack Capital outflows would be no major macro concern Foreign portfolio outflows from Indian financial markets have been easing this month, bucking the broader EM trend. This may have been driven in part by the improvement in the virus situation. Looking... 25th August 2021 · 9 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Jul.) The further decline in the unemployment rate in July may not last long, but it should be more than enough to convince the RBA to proceed with its plans to taper asset purchases in September. 19th August 2021 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack Growth slowing even before potential Delta drag The 1.1% m/m fall in retail sales last month illustrates the worsening drag from the sharp slowdown in real income growth, as earlier fiscal support fades and surging prices erode purchasing power... 18th August 2021 · 9 mins read
